Philippines vs COVID-19: The record and numbers as evidence and narrative

By documenting government pronouncements and key events in the fight against COVID-19, Philippine press and social media enable attribution and accountabilities. This would be enormously valuable to future historians.

With unrelenting viral transmission and expected deeper economic recession, how far back in the broadsheets and newsfeeds should we go to identify the cause of our current woes? What is the story of the Philippines’ fight against COVID-19?

In January, without any semblance of science and evidence, the public was assured that COVID-19 might not withstand tropical heat.

In February, the Department of Health (DOH) said everything was under control.

In March, there was community viral transmission and our lives and sources of livelihood were abruptly locked down. Still, at that time, our health authorities considered massive testing “unnecessary.”

In April and May, the DOH compared the Philippines to other countries and hailed our situation as “good.” A picture was painted of us being Invictus – masters of our faith and captains of our souls. After all, our death rate was “muted,” compared to some North American and European countries.

However, at around this time, the UP Resilience Institute posited that wider viral spread could still be avoided. It suggested that while the ECQ improved the transmission rate “by as much as 83 percent,” it also advised that current trends indicate that without decisive action, “the projected number of cases would increase to more than 30,000 over two months with nearly 10,000 active cases and 2,600 deaths.”

Of course, the Task Force T3’s recent report provided some comfort. We were told that there are 75 laboratories in operation nationwide. Since April, laboratory capacity multiplied 25 times.

By June 30, 2020, the number of cases was 37,514. The Palace spokesman jubillantly declared us winners against the 40,000 UP forecast.

But the inefficient backlog was not taken into consideration. We did not “win” against the UP Fighting Maroons after all. We did not win against the virus.

Worldometer documents that as of July 6, total cases in the Philippines stood at 46,333. This is second to Indonesia’s 63,749. It now exceeds Singapore’s 44,983. Malaysia and Thailand reported only 8,663 and 3,195, respectively. Vietnam’s record is most enviable at 355 with 340 already recovered and no death!

In July, reports of infection reached more than two thousand daily. The prospects of a deeper recession have become more apparent.

COVID-19 infection and recovery rates in the last four days are alarming. Last Sunday, an all-time high of new cases totaling 2,434 was reported. The following Monday was no different. Some 2,099 got infected during various days in the last week, to be reported only on that day.

Nonetheless, the government has started to open up the economy and even lifted travel restrictions. The argument brought us back full cycle to the choice we started with, namely job or life? We find Keynes’ proposition that in the long run, we shall all be dead, to be dismissive of sequential options like addressing first the health issue to allow business to flourish. Yes, isolation and inactivity threaten to get the best of us — health-wise and business-wise — but it looks like we failed to face up to the challenge of that someone who said never let a good crisis go to waste.

It is good that the Task Force T3 reported that it is targeting tests of one million this July, and 10 million by 2022. But with this highly infectious virus, it is not exactly “better late than never.” This is true especially in testing as the infected individual threatens to spread the disease unwittingly. Dr. Edsel Salvana says the virus has mutated to become 3 to 4 times more infectious!

The presidential spokesman recently stressed: “Nasa kamay po natin kung anong mangyayari sa atin dito sa gitna ng pandemyang ito.” This, in

Filipino might imply, “bahala na kayo” and the more dire,

“matira ang matibay.”

We do not discount the importance of personal responsibility. But it is not unreasonable to also clamor for leadership, for direction, and for clarity.

Filipinos are not “pasaway.” The lockdowns were observed, many suffered in silence. Why, even with the downgrade to GCQ, malls and restaurants remain empty and Metro Manila is still desolate.

Should there be those who remain ignorant or defiant of antivirus protocols, it is the duty of the state to protect them, through information, through fair and credible discipline. Telling them, “to each his own” does not actually inspire confidence.

Consumer and business activities will not thrive in an environment of uncertainty, fear, and anxiety. Anybody can catch the virus. The paranoia is aggravated by reports of it being airborne.

It will take some winnowing for future historians to identify which suggestions were heeded, and which fell on deaf ears.

We try to recount some:

1. Proactively test for COVID-19, isolate the infected, and improve contact tracing.

2. Increase human and material resources to support the already burdened national health system.

3. Closely monitor and ensure proper delivery of economic assistance to needy households.

4. Observe transparency and accountability through regular public reporting of public funds spent in the fight against COVID-19.

5. Invest more in institutions like UP which can do evidence-based research to improve policy and implementation and evaluation.

6. Form a national task force to enable government agencies to share information and widely institutionalize strategies and programs that would further enhance national resiliency.

The freeze on business activities was initially needed to protect our people. The early lockdown saved about 170,000 lives and prevented 3.5 million cases.

But should this have been the only purpose of the lockdowns – lockdowns that we remind, came at such a high economic cost?

Were the imposed community quarantines only meant to buy time? Were they imposed in the hopes that the virus would weaken on its own?

The quarantine periods should have been taken as an opportunity to form and implement aggressive strategies against the pandemic. We missed that little space.

We might have even wasted it. It is difficult to imagine health authorities did use the time to square-off vigorously against the pandemic.

Now, the economy is suffering for this default.

We do not need many historians to identify accountabilities. Media, both traditional and social, have documented the records and our number. They are the evidence. They are the narrative that marks time today.