Facing El Niño: Tell that to Mang Nato!

Last Friday, we paid our last respects for Donato “Mang Nato” Gonzales, our loyal driver of 15 years. He started working with the family in his mid-50s but he stood tall in his crew cut and with a built honed in the gym. He had a stern face, he rarely smiled, but he was always soft with my two sons Daniel and Abraham whom he drove from high school through law school. Mang Nato was a model public servant, a loyal husband and a great father to his children.

However, he was effectively felled by this blistering heat of El Niño. He could not stand it anymore, he took a quick shower and suffered cardiac arrest. He died on the spot in their bathroom.

Mang Nato is only one of the casualties and future casualties of El Niño.

For there are hotter days ahead of us.

The country’s weather agency, Pagasa, announced such a discouraging weather bulletin. “There will be hotter temperatures in the days ahead as the easterlies, or warm winds blowing from the Pacific Ocean, continue to dominate nationwide.”

El Niño’s scourge has been worse than expected.

Yes, the likelihood of isolated rain showers and thunderstorms is expected to be high in Eastern Visayas and Mindanao but they are impotent in mitigating this extreme heat. No low-pressure area is in the horizon to bring in typhoons and lots of rain water to cool down the air somewhat.

But Tuesday’s temperature forecasts hit danger levels. Nationwide, heat indices range from 42° to 46° Celsius, covering key cities from Luzon to Mindanao. Our weather agency clarified that heat indices of 42° to 51° Celsius are considered “dangerous.” Such reading could cause heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and even death.

Are we going to see more Mang Natos out there?

Instead of the Department of Health, it was Pagasa which advised the public to prevent the adverse consequences of high heat by limiting outdoor activities, drinking plenty of water and using protective gears against sunlight.

Equally disturbing is the prognosis that this situation of high heat is expected until the middle of May. This means we would be seeing more suspension of classes and economic activities around the country. In the beginning of April, we saw hundreds of schools transitioning from face to face to on-line learning mode of the pandemic to beat the heat. School children’s health and wellbeing are at risk.

High temperatures and frequent extreme heat events also render fisherfolk and farmers at risk because they are the most exposed. Pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases may be worsened. Health experts explain that when high heat is prolonged, as what we are experiencing today, profuse sweating and extreme dehydration could cause body cells to rupture that could ultimately lead to death.

A few years ago, no less than the International Labor Organization (ILO) announced that the increase in heat stress due to global warming will cause productivity loss amounting to 80 million jobs by 2030. Poorest countries will be the most affected by lower productivity, reduced economic growth and elevated inflationary pressure. Unless world leaders unite, we would have to come to terms with the predicted rise in global temperature from 1.5° to 2° Celsius.

Which brings this column to a recent paper written by our former colleagues at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Monetary Policy Research Group namely Jean Christine A Armas, Ranelle Jasmin L Asi, Dyan Rose L Mandap, and Gabrielle Roanne L Moral. These promising young economists found that the shortrun marginal impact of a 1-degree Celsius increase in the country’s annual mean temperature could reduce aggregate output by 0.37 percentage point (ppt). The effects are worsened at 0.47 ppt when the runs are controlled for episodes of El Niño events. Thus, palay production could go down by 1.83 ppt and corn production by 3.51 ppt.

Manufacturing and services sectors are not spared from the negative impact of high temperatures.

Entitled “Macroeconomic Effects of Temperature Shocks in the Philippines: Evidence from Impulse Responses by Local Projections” the paper argued that such impact could remain significantly persistent up to the fourth year after the initial shock.

It should be no surprise that inflation is bound to rise with El Niño and this is something of a wild card in the overall assessment of risks surrounding the inflation forecasts of the BSP. Risk-adjusted forecast for 2024 has been adjusted from 3.9 percent to 4.0 percent when the March inflation further rose from 3.4 percent in February to 3.7 percent in March.

The BSP economists wrote that “a 1-degree Celsius increase in the country’s annual mean temperature could lead to persistent inflationary pressures up to four years, with a cumulative increase of 0.77 ppt in headline inflation after the initial shock.” Shortterm headline inflation could rise by an additional 0.46 ppt and in the longterm, by 0.81 ppt. Food prices which weigh the most in the consumer basket are more heavily affected by the rise in the heat index.

With the protracted impact of El Niño, it would be a stretch for one to argue that in the second half of 2024, weather conditions would start to normalize and the government growth target of six to seven percent and inflation target of two to four percent remain achievable. Things should be back to normal.

Tell that to the farmers and fisherfolk, to young pupils who have to be dismissed from classes due to extreme heat, to riders who deliver food and other items who seek the cool shade of flyovers and whatever remains of green cover in the metropolis.

Tell that to Mang Nato and his grieving family.