Moody’s Analytics sees April inflation decelerating to 7.3%

INFLATION in April likely decelerated further from the previous month’s and the 14-year high of 8.7 percent in January 2023, Moody’s Analytics said in its Asia-Pacific economic preview for the week.

Moody’s Analytics—-a unit of Moody’s Corp. that focuses on non-rating activities—said in a report Monday inflation in April eased to 7.3 percent from 7.6 percent in March.

Its estimate was higher than the 6.3 percent to 7.1 percent forecast range announced by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas for April 2023.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the official figure in a news briefing on May 5. Moody’s Analytics did not provide explanations on its April inflation forecast.

Inflation accelerated to a 14-year high of 8.7 percent in January 2023 but eased to 8.6 percent in February and 7.6 percent in March. Inflation averaged 5.8 percent last year, surpassing the target range of 2 percent to 4 percent.

The elevated inflation in the Philippines, considered one of the stickiest in the region, compelled the BSP to raise the benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent in March 2023.

The interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee earlier raised the average inflation rate assumption for 2023 to a range of 5 percent to 7 percent from the previous estimate of 2.5 percent to 4.5 percent, given the persisting high prices of food, energy and transport costs.

Members of the Inter-Agency Committee on Inflation and Market Outlook said they were committed to pursuing an all-of-government approach to continuously implement immediate and medium-term strategies to alleviate inflation, ensure food and energy security and return to the target range of 2 to 4 percent between 2024 and 2028.

NEDA Undersecretary Rosemarie Edillon said during the IAC-IMO meeting on April 20 that importation would fill the domestic supply shortfall of basic goods.

Aside from importation, other measures proposed by NEDA are the prepositioning of rice buffer stocks during El Niño; strengthening the implementation of biosecurity and hog repopulation programs; improving and expanding the Kadiwa program to directly connect producers and consumers; and fast-tracking the distribution of targeted subsidies to farmers and fisherfolks.

Edillon said import decisions should take into account the expected lean domestic production period and estimated transit time of commodities from the source country to address the domestic supply gap.