Five priority issues for the next President
“Will more funds and powers for the Bangsamoro government, plus its own mechanisms for public service and accountability, reduce or worsen the extensively documented and widely known waste and corruption undermining progress in the ARMM?
“Will the proposed Bangsamoro security force crack down on lawlessness and terrorism, [or] will longstanding ties among armed groups if the military presence is reduced?
“And will the rise of Bangsamoro really persuade extremists to let go of demands for secession as well as portions of the Republic allegedly grabbed from the Muslims? Or will the MILF’s gains only embolden the radicals?”
In his rush to get a peace deal, Aquino would pretty much hand over Muslim Mindanao to the MILF, alienating Christians, Lumad, and the Moro National Liberation Front. The next president should think thrice about setting aside the MNLF, which accepted peace and autonomy two decades ago, in favor of its secessionist splinter group. Why not instead echo the OIC’s call for both Fronts to harmonize their positions?
The danger of devastating war
Whether from wishful thinking or the eagerness to make peace and impress the world, the Aquino government showed lack of prudence in assuming the MILF would give up its decades-old secession goal, and not exploit its clout and concessions under the peace deal for Bangsamoro independence.
Yet prudence and reason should have told those who cared to listen that long-time separatists could just be paying lip service to autonomy so they can gain more power and resources for a renewed struggle.
The same lack of prudence seems evident in Aquino’s policy of escalating American military deployment in the Philippines amid Washington’s growing rivalry with Beijing. The assumption seems to be that this big-power test of wills and might would not trigger a - pines, hosting US forces, would be a frontline state subject to attack.
In the past 70 years since the end of World War II in 1945, America - and twice in Iraq and nearby states. That should tell prudent policymakers that the United States could very well engage in a sixth war for its global security agenda. Indeed, Washington is moving 60 percent of its naval assets to the region under its Pivot To Asia policy.
Today, there are many expert scenarios of Sino-American con interest to the Philippines, and invariably involving massive missile exchanges, possibly including atomic weapons targeting US military assets and the facilities they use. If those forces and the bases they have access to in the archipelago are attacked, there could be immense collateral damage on nearby areas and populations.
Hence, the next President would have to ponder whether the country should accept that war risk just to host American forces, which have NEVER helped or even pledged to help in territorial disputes with China. Or should the Philippines build up maritime defenses, like Vietnam’s submarines and anti-ship missiles, so we can assert territorial interests without putting our people at great risk of devastating superpower war?