Asean: The next 50 years
to realize its full potential as a major global economic force.
But 50 years from now, I have no crystal ball, and neither does anyone. As veteran journalist Kavi Chongkittavorn put it, in today’s world it is hard
To illustrate the how hard it is to foretell, let’s go back 50 years ago—to Southeast Asia 50 years ago. Security - eign ministers to put Asean together. With that signed agreement, did anyone predict that that would blossom into an economic community today? Fifty years ago, did anybody predict China—50 years ago a sleeping economic dragon—would emerge today as the world’s second largest economy and counting? That’s how - pen 50 years from today.
When we ponder the next 50 years, we see increasing prosperity, greater intelligence and yet we see greater income disparity. We see a more peaceful world but see more nations with nuclear capability. We see a cleaner environment, and global warming affecting government policies and our economic model and having a decisive impact on our lives.
Income disparity constitutes the paramount challenge for both development and globalization. If huge segments of a country and the community of nations are left behind by progress, then these disadvantaged sectors and states reject the development and globalization paradigms, and embrace alternative, often isolationist, and sometimes extremist and violent ideologies.
For open economies and free enterprise to win, everyone must win.
What happens 8 years from now
Some question why we are discussing what happens in 50 years. Why not see what happens in eight years, in 2025?
In 2015, Asean leaders crafted in the 27th Asean Summit, the Asean Vision 2025, that is a community highly in- tegrated and cohesive; with enhanced connectivity and central cooperation; and a more resilient, inclusive, and people-oriented, people-centered community, integrated with the global economy. So, 2025 is supposed to be the year of full integration. That is only eight years away. If vision 2025 is achieved, the prospect for realizing the region’s full potential as a major global economic force will be bright.
The organizers of today’s session have put together guide questions that could help evaluate the chance of success of our integration by 2025. will the report that some member nations have lagged behind in facilitating intra-Asean trade affect the desired level of trade for the entire region? The Asian Development Bank and the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies have an answer: that any failure to deliver leads to a loss of credibility, putting Asean countries in danger of falling behind in the global competition for export markets.