China squeezing out Manila in sea row – maritime expert

THE statements of maritime expert Gregory Poling came days after the Armed Forces of the Philippines patrolled Scarborough Shoal where it monitored more Chinese vessels including fishing and Coast Guard ships surrounding the territory.

For Poling, there was also a “political decision” that China feels that it is winning the dispute with other claimants to the waters 124 nautical miles off Masinloc, Zambales.

“If China feels right now that it is winning, why provoke crisis with the Duterte administration? You know, day by day the Chinese are allowed to strengthen their military control over the South China Sea and the Philippines does nothing in response,” he explained.

‘Next phase’

Poling said Manila might be “forced” to take action once Bei- jing spoiled its authority over the territorial waters.

“If they overplay their hand at Scarborough Shoal, Malacañang might be forced to respond and I think they will hold off to build in Scarborough Shoal until they [ China] feel like they have extracted as much as they can from the Duterte government,” according to the maritime expert.

“Then, they will move on to the next phase,” he said.

Poling visited the Philippines as part of the US State Departmentsponsored multi-country speaker program that includes two days in the country.

Another point that he raised is that the claimant nations must take the first necessary steps to come up with a “cleareyed” policy recognizing the worthiness of pursuing the Code of Conduct ( COC) drafted during last year’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( Asean) Summit, which was hosted by the Philippines.

In August 2017, China and Southeast Asian foreign ministers adopted a negotiating framework for a Code of Conduct in the disputed South China Sea that was hailed by Asean foreign affairs leaders.

President Rodrigo Duterte mentioned during the Asean Leaders’ Summit last year that China “graciously agreed” to bind itself to the draft agreement by the foreign ministers.

But for Poling, it was obvious that China was not willing to bind itself to the code, citing the establishment of several man- made islands in the disputed waters.

“The evidence of the last 18 months or so does not support the idea that China is willing to negotiate the binding of the Code of Conduct that brought together all parties,” he said.

“This is not to say that the [COC] talks are a waste of time, that we should not be reaching out to China automatically, simply, we should be doing this with open eyes and recognize that the Chinese built thousands of square meters of military facilities over the course of 2017,” Poling added.

‘Coercive tactic’

While Asean countries, particularly the claimants to the South China Sea territories were discussing the code, China had already built bunkers, missile shelters and radar facilities that can be described as a “coercive tactic,” according to him.

“If you haven’t put the footage in there yet, it’s like waving around an empty gun and it’s inherently threatening at the same time,” he said.

Structures on the man- made islands in South China Sea sum up China’s approach as “military in nature,” Poling added.

He said over the “rainy days,” on a runway built over the waters.

“You’re going to see more signals of intelligence and things like that. You’re gonna keep on seeing the increase in number of Chinese coast guards and maritime naval ships making calls to these,” according to Poling.

“Little by little, the Chinese plan seems to establish [ a] de facto control, maybe without provoking an immediate sharp clash but by sheer force of number that eventually is going to be there such as coast guards and navy ships,” he added.

Poling said every claimant nation should be “realistic” with their expectations from the Asean Summit in Manila that China would bind itself to the Code of Conduct drafted earlier last year.

“Asean is not a mutual security alliance. It’s not equipped to handle something like this [ because] Asean is about confidence- building and socializing China into habits of cooperation,” he explained.

“There is a whole lot of options between surrender and war that are not being tried and the idea that in theory, a future war would be winnable but nobody wants to go to war [ over] the South China Sea. But does that mean that we cannot talk about other stuff in the middle?” Poling said.