21st century diplomacy at work
FOLLOWING last week’s chronology of diplomatic developments in Northeast Asia featuring the scheduled US-North Korea summit meeting in Singapore on June 12 is a reality case study of 21st century diplomacy in action.
It also shows how the play involves the hidden role of the China- US trade war and how the Beijing and Washington leaderships use any and all ammunition available in their respective bags to attain their objectives—national interest being the top priority.
Obvious to outside observers and analysts, on the surface, are the true national interest of the major players:
North Korea wants the US to lead in lifting the United Nations’ economic sanctions on Pyongyang. The UN, including North Korean allies Russia and China, had unanimously voted for the sanctions because of the North Korean nuclear armament buildup and nuclear war head delivery test launches, violations of the international agreement on non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
North Korea, while announcing that it wanted the Singapore summit meeting for “world peace,” is suspected of being insincere and truly wants to keep its nuclear capabilities at the current levels.
Some think-tanks had said North Korea will NOT give up its nuclear armaments development program lest it suffer the fate of Libya and its dictator Moammar - siles program. But Libya collapsed in the murdered by rebels.
However it appears that the economic sanctions are working—particularly the ban on food exports to Pyongyang because North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un had accepted the public invitation, through the social media, of US President Donald Trump for a summit meeting for world peace and stability.
This was preceded by North Korea sending a delegation to participate in the last Winter Olympics in South Korea, a combined North-South Korean team in the competition and followed by the dramatic meeting in the demilitarized truce zone in Panmunjom of Kim and President Moon Jae-in. This to the whole world was after the Korean War ended in 1954 in a
Kim’s acceptance was announced by the state-controlled North Korean state media after its underground nuclear missile test site near the border with China reportedly with increased mass destruction blasts— launches. Of course, Pyongyang did not
But earlier his year, Kim was summoned by China and met with President Xi Jinping secretly. China is North Korea’s biggest trading partner and supporter in its nuclearization program. (This dates back to the Korean War when China sent troops and war materiel to Pyongyang to fight the Allies led by the US after the communist North invaded South Korea to “unify” the divided Korea.)
To independent observers this was an indication that Xi gave instructions to Kim so Beijing’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region is sidelined in the Kim-Trump summit meeting.
China is suspected to be using the North Korean nuclear development program to increase current US involvement in its current ideological disputes with Russia in the current Syrian situation and in the Iranian-Israel word war.
Asean business leaders who prefer not to be named now also believe China allows the smuggling of its food imports into North Korea to make Pyongyang almost totally dependent on Beijing for staple products, thus making China the largest importer of almost every raw has done this successfully because of its reputed 1.3 billion population world’s largest consumers.
economy. And China reportedly is using these to boost its economic competition with the US, hopefully replacing it as the world’s strongest economic and military- political power in this century— the hegemon.
The US wants the complete, irreversible - tion agency) denuclearization of North Korea signed and followed by Pyongyang before all sanctions (particularly ban on food imports) are lifted. And to attain that, Trump even hinted he may even “help” which will allow the political-ideological division of the North and South, but an integrated (“united”) economy.
The US also wants a lesser alliance between Beijing and Pyongyang as a counter-move against China’s cut-throat international trade practices. Chinese and North Korean labor are paid slave wages compared to the international labor and energy costs because they are not unionized. Their products’ quality is proven to be unquestionably inferior. And the communist dictatorship controlled now by Xi allow dissent and public protests.
Trump also wants to curb the Chinese efforts of “robbing” the US of intellectual property rights by copying American technological inventions. The Chinese call this “innovation” which was declared as a national policy at last year’s Chinese Communist Party national general assembly in Beijing.
At the same time, the US wants to main region for its own national security. On the other hand, the Chinese says this is a threat to their territorial integrity.
This is the reason for the close en warships in the South China Sea between China and the US and its allies—after China militarized with missile launching pads, reefs and atolls in UN-recognized exclusive economic zones of Vietnam, Malaysia, as the Brunei and the Philippines.
While it practices “freedom of navigation” in the international waters of the South China Sea, Beijing claims military planes and naval ships are not allowed in any part of what it unilaterally claims its territory.
And although North Korea had released three Americans it detained as “spies,” and blew up its missile test site in Punggye-ri area last week, as a “goodwill” gesture, Trump believed these were not enough.
Trump and Moon met in Washington early last week to iron out the (unmentioned) details of the Trump-Kim Singapore meeting. This was preceded by a joint US-South Korean “routine” naval exercise off the Korean peninsula and a Washington statement against the Chinese militarization of the South China Sea.
Pyongyang attacked these developments and threatened to abort the Trump-Kim Singapore meeting.
Trump’s immediate response was a formal letter to Kim aborting the June 12 meeting because of “tremendous anger and open hostility” by North Korea. But in less than 48 hours later, after his domestic critics pointed out he could lose diplomatic points versus Kim in cancelling the summit meeting, Trump said there is still a good chance the Singapore meeting will go on as scheduled.
Of course this has led to a good amount members, who are waiting for peace and - velopment will turn into reality the inter that the Asean region will be the fastest growing/progressing quarter of the world in the next 25 years.
Nobody can accurately predict the immediate and short-term future in this dynamic world of this century of information and technological advances. But a lot can be learned—and one can choose the best options for, after a thorough analysis of the trend, the future—if he keeps himself accurately, factually and most speedily informed in this age.