Life expectancy in 2040 to rise; longest lifespan in Spain, Japan

PARIS: set to rise at least a little in all nations but the rankings will change dramatically, with Spain taking the top spot while China and the United States trade places, researchers said Wednesday.

With a projected average lifespan of nearly 85.8 years, Spain—

- throne Japan, which sits atop the rankings today with a lifespan of 83.7 years, and will drop to 2nd

In a shift that will be seen by some to reflect a superpower changing- of- the- guard, the world’s two largest economies effectively swap positions com- years), while China rises from 68th to 39th ( 81.9 years).

The researchers found other nations set to lose ground in the race towards longevity include Canada (from 17th to 27th), Nor- Korea 125th to 153rd). Moving up the ranking are In-

(157th to 123rd), Portugal (23rd -

Assuming its interminable and devastating war comes to an end, Syria is set to rise from 137th in

For the world as a whole, the year gain in lifespan, from 73.8 in

They also forecast more optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, in which life expectancy increases

essentially stagnates in the second.

“The future of the world’s health is not pre- ordained,” said lead author Kyle Foreman, head of data science at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health drivers.”

- Smoking and poor diet - - minants, of average lifespans two decades from now are all related to so-called “lifestyle” diseases: high blood pressure, being overweight, high blood sugar, along with alcohol and tobacco use.

More generally, the world will see an acceleration of the shift already under way from communicable to non- communicable diseases, along with injuries, as the top cause of premature death.

Ranking a close sixth is air pollution, which scientists estimate claims a million lives a year in China alone.

After Spain and Japan, the countries with the greatest longevity

-

(85.2

years), Portugal and

Italy The world’s poorest countries in

when it comes to life expectancy, according to the study, published in The Lancet.

With the exception of Afghani-

between 57 and 69 years -- are either in sub- Saharan Africa or

Lesotho, the Central African Republic, Zimbabwe, Somalia and Swaziland are in the rankings basement.

“Inequalities will continue to be large,” said IHME Director Christopher Murray.

“In a substantial number of countries, too many people will continue earning relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated, and die prematurely.

“But nations could make faster progress by helping people tackle the major risks, especially smoking and poor diet,” he added in a statement.

Tobacco consumption alone claims about seven million lives each year, according to the World Health Organization.

causes of premature mortality were non-communicable diseases

is expected toten.

The study

rise to

eight-outof- is available at