Getting ready for the scary years ahead in Asia
WHAT rising risks does Asia
First, the regional economy. War rumblings between Saudi Arabia and Iran, ignited by drone assaults that halved Saudi oil output, may kick up global crude prices even more than the 10 percent right after the attack. Combined with trade frictions between the United States and China, the looming petro-price spiral may erode Asian exports and growth even more.
Even without global trade and oil woes, there are growth risks inside Asia. On the credit front, where the region has taken stringent measures after the Asian Crisis to head off excessive debt, someone forgot to watch the house — households, to be exact. Here’s the warning from the Asian De
“Highly leveraged households constitute a further source of risk in economies where [ overall] debts have risen rapidly. … Household debt [ ratio] to personal disposable income in Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, the Republic of Korea and Taipei, China, by the end of 2014 is at least as high as it was in the US
tussles in East Asia show no signs of abating, with Washington and
- lies stepping up “freedom of navigation operations” (Fonops) near islands and reclaimed land held by Beijing in the South China Sea.
And in three years, the forces facing off may get even deadlier if a pro-American president is elected to succeed Rodrigo Duterte in Manila. The new chief may then implement a 2014 accord to boost US military deployment in the Philippines, with access to several air bases.
Disasters are also up. Professors Wei Mei of the University of North Carolina, and Shang-Ping Xie of the University of California found that East and Southeast Asia have intenproportion of storms of categories 4 doubled or even tripled.”
- ologists’ forum in Vancouver, University of California earth and planetary sciences professor
2004 and 2014, eighteen earthquakes with magnitudes of 8 or more rattled subduction zones around the globe — an increase
rate
of
the
previous
century,
Scared already? There’s more. Southeast Asia is rightly alarmed over the dengue surge. Yet far more deadly are antimicrobial-resistant germs (AMRs), with just resistant tu
a million people worldwide in 2014, and a British report that year forecasting AMR deaths at 10 million
estimated, with Asia accounting for nearly half the projected fatalities.
How not to be scared
That data came from this writer’s paper at the Eastern Region Organization for Public Administration 2019 conference, held this week at the University of the Philippines’ National College of Public Administration
presentation was in line with the resilience theme of the annual gathering of senior government
tion academics in Asia. Plainly, to address fear of Asia’s escalating risks, governments must institute risk monitoring and response mechanisms, and learn from private-sector enterprise risk management (ERM) systems and
federal agencies to adopt ERM. IBM’s Center for the Business
— Affording the opportunity for agencies to make more educated decisions
— Increasing knowledge and understanding of risk across the organization
— Improving risk culture and agreeing on core values
— Aligning risks with agency/ program goals and objectives
— Providing for a more efficient and effective means of managing risk.
In sum, given the immense complexity and unpredictability of threats faced by any state and its agencies, there is need for a rational, sophisticated and organization-wide approach to assessing and addressing such risks.
And the ERM effort must begin at the top agency leadership, which must
— Are there risk-avoidance policies greatly hampering the agency mission and performance?
— What risks must the agency
raising its performance?
— Do we have the right infrastructure and processes to minimize risks inherent in maximizing performance and services,
Can Asia do ERM?
Well and good, as long as government agencies can do ERM the right way. And there’s the rub. Even in America, where the risk management system is far advanced than in Asia, there are hiccups.
Accounting and consulting giant Deloitte compares what ERM prescribes and where agen“tone at the top” support stringent ERM. controls are enough.
staff don’t strive for it.
for with limited tenure and acting chiefs are reluctant to assert ERM. act on risks, and report on ERM measures and results. - sources, legal basis and authority
decline to take ERM responsibilities for fear of being blamed for crises. Incentives are not given for agency-wide risk culture among all personnel and stakeholders, so that all watch out for and take action on potential threats.
- grams focus on their own risks, neglecting overall agency ERM. Units and officials refuse to admit ERM failings for fear of censure. Inadequate sharing of unit and program reports limits agency-wide risk awareness.
That’s in America, and probably much of Asia too. Thankfully, there are professional risk management standards and best practices for private and public sectors. Adopting and adapting ERM should therefore get top priority from Asian governments keen to safeguard themselves and their nations from unpredictable events and developments. Failing to do so courts crisis and catastrophe.