A GENTLE REMINDER TO THE PRESIDENT

PRESIDENT Rodrigo Duterte’s audacity to go against the conventional and traditional was largely considered by many as assets to his style of governance. Tired of the elitism that excluded more than it included, a substantial majority of the Filipino people saw in the President’s spontaneity, vulgarity and unpredictability an endearing novelty. He became the familiar with which ordinary citizens easily related to. His randomness, quickness to react, the ability to improvise, or even to depart from and discard a formal speech and disregard the teleprompter were seen by many not as flaws but as characteristics that speak of a leader who is ready to descend to the discourse of the ordinary and everyday. He rarely sticks to the topic of a celebration or an event, if at all. In doing so, he mirrors the hoi polloi, like an ordinary person talking with friends in some street corner over a round of

lambanog or gin.

There is no doubt that the President is a transactional leader, a trait which he cultivated and developed from his years of being the mayor of a provincial city. He is also a populist leader. He is driven by the wishes of his constituents, even more so those of his loyal base. He derives pleasure in serving their basic needs and responding to their popular demands. And in a city where he had hegemony, where he controlled the political landscape — a city council dominated by allies and presided over by a family member, a media that is non- adversarial, a local civil society that is more restrained and a political opposition that is practically muted, if it exists at all — Mayor Rodrigo Duterte can afford to bark orders and issue policy statements that are spurs of the moment reactions to what is demanded by the circumstances.

This is the political ethos that he brought with him to the presidency. During the presidential campaign, candidate Duterte even admitted that he didn’t have a comprehensive governance plan. He acknowledged the fact that other candidates had plans, and he would just borrow all of those. To an electorate sick and tired of the grandiose promises of politicians, this was not a fundamental flaw, but an endearing sign of his pragmatism and sincerity. But if there was one clear battle where he had a more definite blueprint, it was on criminality, particularly on the issue of drugs. He painted the country as being on the verge of becoming a narcostate ruled by narco- oligarchs. This was a masterstroke, for it imaged a crisis and he branded himself as one that would solve it, in six months, he said. The genius of this move was that it resonated with the electorate, as it connected the issues of peace and security with the issue of corruption.

But the President soon realized that it was easier said than done. He had to recalibrate his timeline. And this is just one of the many areas where he made a turnaround. He pivoted toward China. The image of a jetskiriding leader planting the flag of the Philippines in one of the contested islands in the West Philippine Sea quickly dissolved into that of a leader that set aside the arbitral ruling that favored our interests. His promise of an independent foreign policy turned into a pragmatic unidirectional foreign policy looking toward China. Nevertheless, this did not dissipate the loyalty of his political base, which reached phenomenal levels and was translated into huge gains during the midterm elections. In fact, the President rode into his presidency with all his broken promises armed with the undying loyalty of his diehard supporters. What made his grip on power even more formidable is that the President compensated with welfare programs, from universal healthcare to free public tertiary education. As one loyal undersecretary proudly claimed, he is unstoppable.

However, and past his midterm, the President’s weak points are beginning to unravel. And unlike Davao City where he practically controlled all political institutions, such privilege is denied him at the national level. The noisy political opposition, joined by more independent- minded legislators, some of whom are even from his own majority coalition, provide contrapuntal challenges. The media is fiercely independent, and civil society is not as easily intimidated.

The President and his allies, defenders and supporters all point to his high approval, satisfaction and trust ratings to deflect any opposition and criticism. His drug war, criticized for its alleged brutality and extrajudicial executions, continues to gain wide support. The question, however, is until when this will hold. One critical area is China, where the President has received strong criticism, and where surveys indicate that majority of the people disagree with his policy direction.

But one area where the President needs to watch out are the cracks in his own administration now juxtaposing with the unraveling of his own leadership style. He came into power promising that he had no friends to protect and no enemies to harm. Yet evidence shows that he has retained his trust on his own people, even those whose possible involvement in corruption is more than just a whiff. This, even as he has shown a tendency to be vengeful toward his political enemies. And it seems that all of these are revealed no less by the spontaneity of the President himself, and his unstoppable mouth.

There was a time when people would have easily laughed at the President’s admission that he ordered the ambush of a suspected narco-personality, or take lightly his forgetfulness in not being able to remember ordering an end to accepting offers of economic assistance from countries that displeased him.

The President should not feel over- confident that he is protected by a deeply loyal base, or that the political opposition is widely disliked by many. He should be reminded that public opinion could easily change. All it needs is a trigger.