Law of supply and demand for US visas

WHERE do the 1 million green card holders in the United States come from?

Each country, including the Philippines, has a yearly allocation of approximately 25,620 visas for the various family- and employment-based preferences. The actual number of visas and adjustment cases approved may be bigger than the annual quota.

Immigrant visas are issued at consular posts outside the US. Visa numbers are assigned and green cards issued to those in the US, who have successfully applied for adjustment of status.

In both cases, the priority date must be current for the visa to be available.

Some of the factors that may affect the visa issuance or visa assignment within a year are the number of visa refusals

grounds. Some criteria on the other hand, are beyond the immigrant visa applicants’ control.

These include the economic and political conditions in the country and the life span of the petitioner.

When economic conditions are good and opportunities grow, visa applicants who have established careers, professions and businesses may have second thoughts about starting fresh in another country.

Sure, getting a pay commensurate to one’s occupation is a perennial wish list in the Philippines. The arbitrary glass ceiling in a company stunts personal and financial growth. The need for political connections to get ahead is a given.

But what if you already have all these?

Chances are you may put that visa application on hold. Put it in the back burner. A back-up option. Just in case things go wrong or should your plans go south.

Some who feel they’ve reached the limit of tolerance will pursue that chance to cross the ocean. They will be part of the 25,620 applicants issued immigrant visas yearly.

Why go for green card

Duplicate these scenarios in other countries with similar per-country allocation and you have a better grasp of why immigrant visa applicants in each country may want to get the green card or not.

The more visa applicants in another country postponing their visa applications, the better your chance of getting to the embassy interview ahead of the others in the family-sponsored categories.

The spouse, minor children and parents of US citizens have more time to procrastinate or put their applications on hold. They are, after all, not covered by the annual quota. Lately, even the spouses and minor children of green card holders see their priority dates move faster than usual.

This year, the cut-off dates for

others who are next in line and have paid the fees as well as completed the documentary requirements.

There is no way to determine how many visas are unused and returned from month to month. In the same manner that demand ( based on one country’s economic and political conditions) could affect the decision of visa applicants to pursue, suspend or abandon their visa application.

These monthly fluctuations cause changes in the processing times — cut-off dates may move forward, stand still or retrogress. Retrogression is usually felt at the

- tember) when annual limits are reached, or if there are sudden, unexpected surges in demand.

To monitor the pace of processing, immigrant visa applicants must check both charts of the Visa Bulletin published monthly

Until an immigrant visa applicant’s priority date is current, he or she should check how fast (or slow) the processing pace is to determine how soon the documents could be submitted and the fees paid.

Visa applicants worldwide and PH visa watchers

In November 2015, before Donald Trump was elected, there were 4,331,750 people all over the world waiting for their familybased visas to be issued. The number has gone down to 3,791,973. There were 417,511 Philippine immigrant visa applicants.

In November 2018, the total number worldwide went down to 3,791,973. Applicants from the Philippines also decreased to 314,229. In sum, 539,777 familysponsored visas were issued worldwide over a three-year period.

The share of immigrant visa applicants from the Philippines from the overall total in November 2018 shows that there are more

Category September 2017 Immigrant visas issued in Manila

161 36 56 42 296 217 38 35 100 50 58 64 122 193 418

applicants waiting in the F3 category both worldwide and from the Philippines: F3 married sons and daughters — 689,924 and 119,315; F4, adult siblings of US citizens — 2,249,722 and 119,315.

The lowest number belongs to the F2A category (spouse and minor children of green card holders — 145,861 and 4,721, respectively) since this category

visa allocation yearly (114,200) among the other family- sponsored classes. Of this number, 75 percent is exempt from the per-country limit.

that the “current limits set the annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employmentbased preference immigrants is at least 140,000…the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7 percent of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, or 25,620.”

Had that yearly limit been met, the three- year total should have been 678,000. After visa applicants pay the fees and submits the documents required at the National Visa Center, an interview date is set at a consular post. For Philippine applicants, their interview dates are scheduled at the US Embassy, Manila.

the petitioner ( theoretically in coordination with the visa beneficiary) specifies the consular

apply for his or her immigrant visa. Usually, petitioners from the Philippines indicate the US Embassy, Manila.

In 2015, 32,521 immediate relative and family- preference visas were issued at the Manila consular post. In 2016, the number dropped to 29,391. The next year when Donald Trump was elected president, the number dropped again to 25,964.

September 2018

125 43 121 73 244 206 35 25 66 43 36 22 120 204 425

August 2019

The August 2019 report at the Manila consular post in September of 2017 and 2018 shows the reduced number of familysponsored visas issued on a monthly basis — except for a few categories such as the F11 (over 21 unmarried children of US citizens); F12, F41, FX1 and FX2.

– CR1 — spouse of US citizens with conditional status. Spouses

two years of getting married. – CR2 — child of CR1

– F11 — Over 21, unmarried son/daughter of US citizen

– F12 — child of F11

– F24 — Over 21, unmarried son/daughter of green card holder – F25 — child of F24

– F31 — Married son/daughter of US citizen

– F32 — child of F31

– F41— Adult brother, of US citizen

– F42 — child of F41

– IR1— spouse of US without condition.

– IR2 — minor child of IR1 – IR5 — parent of US citizen

Migration limits

sister citizen Current immigration laws set the annual family preference categories worldwide at 226,000, another 140,000 for employment- based petitions.

The spouse, minor children and parents of US citizens ( officially termed as “immediate relatives”) are not covered by the yearly limits.

From 2015 to 2017, the Department of Homeland Security’s Yearbook of Statistics show the number of immediate relatives at 465,068; 566,706 and 516,508.

The average number of all immigrants in the family and employment- preference categories admitted into the United States is 1 million.

This is the yearly limit that the Trump administration wants to cut in half: the campaign is to reduce legal migrants from coming and cut the links of chain migration.

Without a demand, there will be no supply to worry about.