The female ‘rule’ in presidential succession

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Robredo as drugs czar has evoked reactions along a uniform line: will she or will she not succeed at what — as ventilated by her criticisms of President Duterte’s conduct of the anti-illegal drugs war — has failed?

In my case, I’d place the question at: will she or will she not succeed at snatching the presidency away from Digong?

In case you haven’t yet known, in horse racing and in cockfight, aficionados go by what they call “in placing their bets. By some unknown, inexplicable reason, after a series of wins by favorite entries in a horse race or a cockfight, there comes up a long shot, which emerges winner. The “or bettors who dote on long shots, wait for the regal of successive wins by favorite entries before placing their bets on a long shot. And what do you know? The long shot wins!

It is a strange phenomenon, that by a mere, albeit deep, observation of a pattern, one gets to predict with a good degree of accuracy that a certain occurrence will take place, in the cited example, the winning by a horse

Now, on the appointment of

chairman of the Inter- Agency Committee on Anti-Illegal Drugs, what strikes me as very interesting is the declaration by presidential spokesman Salvador Panelo that

Why would, she said, she accept the post of prime drugs buster if her intention was to be president in 2022? The implication of this statement is that she would not throw her life on the line now if she wanted to be president three years hence. But that’s not quite logical. Throwing one’s life on the line is a far greater credential to Malacañang than keeping herself safely ensconced wherever.

Besides — and this is what should interest us all — precisely because in contests where credentials must give way to the astounding, if inexplicable, power of patterns to bring about

the presidency in 2022 is an inevitability of which everything that she does now becomes a necessary component.

In other words, if she becomes president as a result of the 2022 elections, it is because she will have it coming to her by virtue of what inevitably must come about based on established patterns to the Philippine presidency.

Patterns galore

The patterns to the Philippine presidency can be divided into two distinct periods: the pre

EDSA 1 and post- EDSA 1.

The pre- EDSA 1 period consisted of the incumbencies of Presidents Manuel Roxas ( 1946 to 1949, that was shortened by his death in 1948); Elpidio Quirino (1948 to 1953); Ramon Magsaysay ( 1953 to 1957); Carlos P. Garcia ( 1957 to 1961); Diosdado Macapagal ( 1961 to 1965); Ferdinand E. Marcos ( 1965 to 1986).

The post- EDSA period was made up of the administrations of Presidents Corazon C. Aquino ( 1986 to 1992); Fidel V. Ramos ( 1992 to 1998); Joseph Estrada ( 1998 to 2001); Gloria Macapagal Arroyo ( 2001 to 2010); Benigno Aquino 3rd (2010 to 2016); and Rodrigo Roa Duterte ( 2016 to date).

Analyzing the patterns

We may observe as points of study that succession to the Philippine

presidency had transpired according to the following patterns, of the pre-EDSA 1:

– Succession by the vice president due to the death of the incumbent ( Roxas by Quirino; Magsaysay by Garcia).

– Succession by a secretary of National Defense through regular election (Quirino by Magsaysay).

– Succession by the vice president through regular election ( Garcia by Macapagal).

– Succession by a Senate president through regular election ( Macapagal by Marcos). Of the post- EDSA 1: – Succession by a female president through extraconstitutional process.

– Succession by a secretary of National Defense through regular election ( Cory by Ramos).

– Succession by a vice president through regular election ( Ramos by Estrada).

– Succession by a female president through extraconstitutional process (Marcos by Cory); likewise by a female vice president through extraconstitutional process (Estrada by Arroyo).

– Succession by a senator through regular election ( Arroyo by Aquino).

– Sucession by a mayor through regular election ( Aquino by Duterte).

Observations

In the pre- EDSA 1 period, noticeable is the one single pattern of the presidency changing hands among males only.

But in the post- EDSA 1 period, the presidency shifted between males and females.

Moreover, in this period, the change in the presidency took place according to the fixed pattern of: one female, two males, one female, two males. ( Cory, Ramos and Estrada; Gloria,

Noynoy and Duterte).

Moreover still, the change of male President to female President was accomplished through extraconstitutional means involving active intervention by the military (EDSA 1 and EDSA 2).

After the administration of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, two male Presidents have taken over Malacañang.

If the above pattern is to be followed, that is, one female after two males, who is in line to be the next president of the Philippines?

Without meaning it, presidential spokesman Panelo did sound prophetic when he declared that by appointing Vice President Robredo as drug czar, Malacañang gave her a ladder to the presidency.

That could be ironic, for sure, sounding as it does like the death knell for his boss.

But, then, as in Greek tragedy, that’s just how the fates work.

Ahh… patterns. They do work.