Second wave not argument against reopening of economy

First word

READE R

Ronald

Tolentino, writing from Sydney, Australia, sent me the following note, commenting on my column on barbershops (“Ban on barbershops and salons is ‘tyranny for our own good’” ( TheManilaTimes, May 16, 2020):

“Here in Sydney Australia barbershops and hairdressers remained open. They are not even wearing gloves and masks! I’ve had a haircut twice since March.

“So far, only 97 recorded deaths here due largely to related infections from the cruise ship and a couple or more from other cruise ships. We closed the borders here early and banned interstate travels much earlier than the Philippines, so probably that’s the reason our version of lockdown is much more lenient and yet relatively few infections and deaths. Parks remained open and public transport normal. Even elementary schools closed only for a short time though teachers are protesting against opening. But the government reasoned out that essential personnel need to attend [to] their public responsibilities and so their kids need to go back to school. Anyway, the government made childcare free so parents have the choice.”

What is the objective now?

On the sound principle of holding the Inter-Agency Task Force for Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) accountable (or holding its feet to the fire?), I want to ask what happened to the oft-repeated goal of flattening the curve, and what is the objective now under the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ).

When the community quarantine and economic lockdown began on March 16, Philippine officials echoing their counterparts in other countries, declared that the quarantine/ lockdown was being undertaken “to flatten the curve” and primarily to prevent our hospital system from being overrun by sick people.

Two months later, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire and other health officials were singing in chorus that the objectives have been met. The quarantine has slowed down the virus and our hospital system has held up well under the stress. Only the lack of personal protective equipment or PPE needs correction.

Eradicating the disease

Now, as the modified scheme is being implemented, the rhetoric behind the shutdown appears to be turning away from flattening the curve and saving the hospitals.

At the time, flattening the curve did not mean eradicating the disease; it only meant slowing down the rate at which people got sick of the disease so our health system could cope.

Now, under the MECQ, the objective appears to have turned toward eradicating the disease.

Health officials flatly declare that for as long as there are infections and fatalities from the virus, the prolonged quarantine will not be lifted. The task force will keep recommending to President Rodrigo Duterte to extend the community quarantine, for as long as there is a pandemic.

Second wave of infections

Health officials have declared that the objective now is to prevent a second wave of coronavirus infections. The country will be overwhelmed by a second wave. President Duterte says the nation cannot afford a second outbreak. Public coffers are already drowning in debt.

Talk about a second wave, however, is overblown. It is more designed for fear- mongering. There is little evidence of it on the record, except for a slight uptick of infections in South Korea.

It is not a credible argument against the reopening of economies that have been locked down.

No second wave in reopened US states

From the United States there is news that states that have reopened their economies are not experiencing in any way a second wave of infections.

Authorities are not seeing spikes in coronavirus cases in places that are reopening, but are seeing increases in some areas that remain closed, US Health Secretary Alex Azar said on Sunday.

“We are seeing that in places that are opening, we’re not seeing this spike in cases,” Azar said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. “We still see spikes in some areas that are in fact close to very localized situations.”

Azar put the onus on reopening struggles on local governments.

“These are very localized determinations. There should not be a one size fits all to reopening but reopen we must because it’s not health versus the economy. It’s health versus healthy,” he said, adding there are serious health consequences to not reopening.

In our case, keeping our economy closed such as what we are doing now, is both short-sighted and suicidal. First, because the Philippine health system does not have expertise and capabilities to really face the coronavirus on its own. Without a working economy, the country will break down or implode.

Second, the survival of the economy has become intimately tied up with the struggle against the virus. Our economy has been plunged into recession by the counsel of the IATF- EID to place the economy under lockdown, in the vain attempt to contain the virus.

For a long time now, it has been plain to our people that our economic crisis has been largely self- inflicted. The coronavirus pandemic is not a natural disaster, as some have portrayed it. It is rather a manmade disaster, courtesy of the IATF- EID and President Duterte.

Precisely because it is manmade, our government, through wise- thinking leaders, can now initiate the process of correction and national renewal.