What will be the color of our Covid-19 recovery plan?
Ihave always considered that the three global frameworks — Sendai Framework for Disaster
Risk Reduction, Agenda
2030 on Sustainable Development, and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change — agreed and adopted by United Nations ( UN) member- states in 2015 should govern our post- 2015 development era.
With the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic hitting humanity in an unprecedented manner, I still keep the conviction that the same frameworks should define our post- Covid- 19 era. Except, at this time, in the absence of any vaccine, we have to do a resetting on how we intend to move forward, given the continuous and growing threats of the virus. In hindsight, on the other hand, we are offered the best opportunity not only to address our failures to respond to pandemics, but also to craft policies that will arrest the human-caused climate emergency.
In spite of the International Energy Association projection that heat- trapping greenhouse gas ( GHG) emissions will decline by 8 percent this year, an agency in the United States projected that there is a 75- percent probability that 2020 is set to be the hottest year on record, shattering the record set four years ago. Data showed that the first three months of the year were the planet’s second warmest period in 141 years of record- keeping.
The decline in GHG emissions may come as a positive news — some saying it is the “silver lining” — during this global health crisis, however, in order to keep temperature increases to less than 1.5 degree Celsius, the UN Environment Programme estimates that global GHG emissions must fall by 7.6 percent every year until 2030.
Six climate-related actions proposed by Guterres
Over a month ago, during our celebration of the International Earth Day, the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, in his message, proposed six climaterelated actions that will guide governments and societies in our recovery process. These include:
“First: As we spend huge amounts of money to recover from the coronavirus, we must deliver new jobs and businesses through a clean, green transition.
“Second: Where taxpayers’ money is used to rescue businesses, it needs to be tied to achieving green jobs and sustainable growth.
“Third: Fiscal firepower must drive a shift from the grey to green economy and make societies and people more resilient.
“Fourth: Public funds should be used to invest in the future, not the past, and flow to sustainable sectors and projects that help the environment and the climate. Fossil fuel subsidies must end and polluters must start paying for their pollution.
“Fifth: Climate risks and opportunities must be incorporated into the financial system, as well as all aspects of public policymaking and infrastructure.
“Sixth: We need to work together as an international community.”
Guterres said that we must act decisively to protect our planet from both the coronavirus and the existential threat of climate disruption. The current crisis is an unprecedented wake-up call. We need to turn the recovery into a real opportunity to do things right for the future, he continued.
Charting our road to rescue and recovery
After over two months of self- isolation and social distancing, come Monday or June 1, the entire capital region may be declared under a general community quarantine ( GCQ) — a welcome development as we celebrate Philippine Environment Month. But there is nothing to rejoice yet, as mass gatherings continue to be disallowed and the GCQ is not the new normal that most of us are thinking.
We have to admit that, while staying at or working from home pose a challenge for all, we were able to help in lessening the spread of the virus. The government, together with the private sector as partners, through their joint collaboration under Task Force T3, have continued mass testing, now targeting at least 30,000 tests a day. In a span of four months — until end of September — this public- private partnership program will be able to test 3.3 million Filipinos that represent 3 percent of our population.
The economy took a beating during the enhanced community quarantine. Based on the study prepared by the National Economic and Development Authority, the estimated “initial” impact on our gross domestic product amounted to losses of P1.1 trillion, around 80 percent of which came from two regions only – the National Capital Region (P589 billion) and Calabarzon or Region 4A (P265 billion).
The Covid-19 pandemic is different from the global financial crisis that happened over a decade ago. No crisis is the same. There are lessons to be learned from the past crisis, especially the impact of previous measures on our climate. One lesson learned is that green policies often have advantages over traditional policies.
For instance, the passage of the “Renewable Energy Act of 2008” was timely at the height of the global financial crisis. Renewable energy (RE) investment is attractive both in the short and the long run. RE generates more jobs in the short run that will boost spending. In the long run, RE requires less labor for operation and maintenance.
In designing our recovery plan, our policymakers will be faced with three colors — brown, colorless or green.
Some sectors will put forward a brown recovery plan as it reinforces the links between economic prosperity and fossil fuels. This group will continue to lock us up in the fossil fuel era that have reined for decades and have brought us to our present predicament on the climate crisis.
Another group will campaign for a colorless recovery plan — those who want to maintain the status quo and continue to embrace the “business as usual” thinking. Business as usual denotes temperature increases over 3 degrees Celsius, implying great future uncertainty, instability and climate damages. These are the same people who are afraid of any transformational change.
There is no doubt that those who will promote any of the first two colors disregard the special reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2018 and 2019.
The last group — perhaps the noisiest among the three — will advocate aggressively for a green recovery plan, one which have the potential to reduce GHG emissions and where it sets the economy on a pathway towards a lowcarbon development. We know that, without a green recovery, emissions will continue to rise and the goals of the Paris Agreement will be impossible to meet. A green recovery plan is necessary to address climate change.
The soon- to- be- designed recovery plan will reshape our economy including their impacts on the climate. Policy choices could drive GHG emissions either upward or downward.
The author is the executive director of the Young Environmental Forum. He completed his climate change and development course at the University of East Anglia (United Kingdom) and executive program on sustainability leadership at Yale University (USA). He can be reached at ludwig.federigan@ gmail.com.