NBA Draft: First overall pick facts
THE NBA Champions have gone on their parade, and now the focus of the basketball world is on the NBA Draft. Any other year, this is probably what we would be talking about.
The 2020 NBA Draft has been moved to October 16, so for now, all we can do is reminisce about past Drafts.
There are already redrafts in most sites and podcasts, so it would probably be more fun to check on some interesting facts on the draft sequences. Let’s start with the first overall pick.
The best of the top
The first overall pick is the most celebrated player to enter the NBA in a given year. Teams actually tank just to place themselves in this position. If you get this draft right, you can totally change the course of your franchise.
When you have 20/20 hindsight, you realize just how difficult the draft is. The first overall pick ended up as the best player of their class much less often than you think.
For the past 30 drafts (1990 to 2019), the No.1 overall picks ended up as the best player in their class only seven times. To be fair, it is too early to write off Ben Simmons (2016) and Zion Williamson (2019) who are still the most likely to be the topnotcher. Seven out of 25 is still quite low.
There would be some arguments, of course, but I would consider these first overall picks as the best of their draft class: Shaquille O’Neal (1992), Chris Webber (1993), Tim Duncan ( 1997), LeBron James ( 2003) Dwight Howard ( 2004) Anthony Davis (2012) and KarlAnthony Towns (2015).
There are many factors at play, of course. Injuries have affected the fortunes of some of these top picks. There are also late-bloomers who broke out in the pros. It usually takes a decade for a “can’t miss” prospect, and the league has also evolved.
There were first overall picks that were propelled by trends from the previous drafts, and many times, they didn’t work. When players straight from high school like Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant broke out, the trend was finding the best high school player. That resulted in the 2001 Draft having Kwame Brown as the top pick and LeBron as the one in 2003.
The top player of the 2001 draft was Pau Gasol, and it resulted in the next trend — the international center/big man. There were Yao Ming (2002), Andrew Bogut ( 2005) and Andrea Bargnani (2006) who were all picked before eventual superstars.
About 25 percent of first overall picks actually deserved their No.1 billing. Some were good, like Blake Griffin, who won his Rookie of the Year award in 2010 due to injury. He was the early topnotcher of the 2009 draft, but Steph Curry and James Harden exceeded him and even became MVPs.
Convergence of top picks
The team that had the most No.1 overall picks was the 1987 LA Lakers. They had four first overall picks: Kareem Abdul Jabbar ( 1969), Magic Johnson ( 1979), James Worthy (1982) and Klay’s dad, Mychal Thompson ( 1978) joined the team later.
Second place would be this year’s LA Lakers. They have LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard.
Back to back No.1 picks
Some teams have all the luck, but sometimes they also blow it. In the post-merger era, only a handful of teams had back-to-back first overall picks. The Houston Rockets got that in 1983 and 1984, they formed the twin towers of Ralph Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon.
The Orlando Magic in 1992 and 1993 picked the two best players of those classes, Shaq and Chris Webber, but traded Webber for Penny Hardaway on draft day.
The Cleveland Cavaliers had this in 2013 and 2014; they picked Canadians Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins. Bennett was one of the worst ever no.1 picks, and Wiggins was traded and never became a Cavalier. The Cavs getting three No.1 picks in four years (2011, 2013 and 2014) is unprecedented fortune, but they never made the most of it.
Philadelphia 76ers’ “Process” got them two No.1 picks in 2016 and 2017. Ben Simmons is a cornerstone, but they already gave up on Markelle Fultz.