The importance of Covid-19 statistics: What DoH must tell us

FOR weeks n ow ,

I have been perplexed by the spectacle of Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire briefing us daily on the latest turns in the Covid-19 situation in the country.

She invariably reports an increase of at least a thousand or more new infections (cases), a few more deaths, and a number of recoveries. Nothing changes much in the reports.

Amazingly, despite the diligent tracking and reporting by the Department of Health (DoH) of daily developments, none of us has grown wiser or more comprehending of this dreadful disease in our midst. We are just as fearful now as we were at the beginning of the emergency.

I monitor religiously online developments in other countries across the globe. But all the additional information and probably arcane knowledge I get from this have not given me a clearer picture of the pandemic, or more confidence that by my wits I can survive this nightmare.

What is missing, I am convinced, is the adequacy and meaningfulness of the information and statistics that the DoH is giving us every day. Our health officials themselves do not seem to possess a more penetrating understanding of the pandemic or the disease. They seem to be just as befuddled as we are.

Some doctors and scientists, whose writings I have come to read online, have pointed out to me how I can fill the glaring gaps in my understanding of the pandemic by asking the right questions of our health authorities.

One such doctor and scientist is Dr. David Samadi, who has been writing articles and columns in the Newsmax website since the viral outbreak began. He is the director of men’s health and urologic oncology at the St. Francis Hospital in Long Island. He is a renowned and highly successful board certified urologic oncologist expert and robotic surgeon in New York City.

On June 25, Dr. Samadi published an article titled “Be fearless, cautious on Covid-19 stats.”

His subject is how important the Covid- 19 numbers game is. He wrote:

“Now that protests and riots have quieted down for now, news outlets are once again focusing on cases of

Covid-19. And according to their daily grim spin of misleading the public, the number of coronavirus cases is rising more rapidly than ever. The summer’s coronavirus hot spots now include a record number of cases soaring in states such as Alabama, Arizona, Texas, Florida, and even in Montana, where social distancing has been practiced for decades. Much of the blame in this rapid rise is attributed, unsurprisingly, to the reopening of the economy.

“Most of us likely would have surmised that the number of individuals contracting Covid-19 would see an uptick as businesses reopened allowing a somewhat more ‘normal’ existence like we used to know before the virus came to our shores.

“It was bound to happen. After roughly three months of lockdown doing our part in flattening the curve so as not to overwhelm hospital admissions with infection cases, people are simply Covid-19 weary….

“The main concern of many health officials, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, is that relaxing shutdown rules could trigger an outbreak that may be uncontrollable resulting in needless suffering and death….

“The country’s current testing capacity is around 300,000 tests a day that can be administered throughout the nation. Health officials caution this number falls short of what they recommend which is up to 20 million tests per day by late July.

“We also know that starting up business as usual means more of us mingling together — something we haven’t done in quite some time. It’s natural for a viral infection to increase when this happens but besides looking at the number of cases rising, what’s the number of deaths or hospitalizations coinciding with the rise in numbers?

“What is the age demographic contracting the virus and how many are able to recover at home?

“Without transparency and the media digging deeper for these numbers, they’re difficult to find.

“While fears of coronavirus are justified, at the same time common sense needs to prevail. The topsy-turvy nature of this virus and how its driving longterm uncertainty is harming everyone’s health. Uncertainty breeds fear, anxiety, increases in stress with a feeling of powerlessness of the direction of your future. This is not a way we want to live.

“Needed most right now is statistical facts of how dangerous this virus really is.

“To paint a broad brush narrative of simply numbers increasing does not address the fine details of the illness.

“When a state reports massive spikes in one day of the number of citizens testing positive, what percent of them have severe enough symptoms to be hospitalized?

“How many have only mild symptoms and how many have more moderate symptoms gradually getting worse?

“What percent of the total number of Covid- 19 cases in states have died from the illness? How does this compare to the seasonal flu or other contagious illnesses? Maybe Covid-19 is losing steam; one report has found that the virus appears to be less dangerous than what it was many weeks ago.

“We need fact finders and reports that go the extra mile of providing accurate numbers without hype or political gain. Without knowing the true meaning behind numbers spouted on TV news or social media, this only creates more fear, less trust, and more division within the nation. This is not what we need right now.

“Most of us simply want to live a life filled with happiness, adventure, and good health. In our current national state, most of us are still living fearfully unsure of what to expect thanks to coronavirus. I tell you now, most cases of Covid-19 are not fatal.

“Those most at risk are elderly people (the CDC has found that 8 out of 10 deaths from Covid-19 in the US are adults 65 and older) and those with pre-existing conditions such as diabetes, heart disease and obesity.

“The vast majority of adults take responsibility for their lives by taking precautionary steps to reduce their risk and the risk of others from contracting Covid-19. I advise to continue to do so by knowing and following the virus guidelines of the state you live in.

“Wear a mask if required and particularly when in a large crowd making social distancing difficult or when around those most vulnerable to the virus.

“Frequent handwashing, preferably with soap and water, throughout the day and avoidance of touching your nose, mouth and eyes will be your most valuable strategies keeping you Covid-free.

“We can do this and we will conquer Covid-19 eventually.”

Dr. Samadi, of course, is talking mainly of the situation in America and its many states. But his great insights can apply just as well to our own situation here in the Philippines.

While conceding the relative lack of modern facilities and latest treatments here, we surely have a right to demand transparency and truth in communications from our health department and cooperating agencies and task forces.

Next time, I sit down to listen to Undersecretary Vergeire’s briefing, I want to get statistics and what they mean. I will not settle for just the scare talk by the World Health Organization that the Philippines has the fastest growing number of Covid-19 cases in the Western Pacific.