Government’s dangerous push to ‘reopen’ the economy
THE government of this fine republic has apparently adopted “frustrated resignation” as a policy orientation with respect to the ongoing Wuhan Virus pandemic, as indicated by numerous signals this week that it would soon accelerate the “reopening” of the economy, the coronavirus be damned. The most troubling thing about this perspective is that, as risky as it is, it may actually be the most realistic direction to take at this point.
On Thursday, a “second phase” plan for loosening restrictions and allowing for more “normal” activity was presented to the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATFEID), the awkwardly named Star Chamber that is apparently running the government’s pandemic response. Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said the first phase of the government’s
National Action Plan, covering March through June, had obtained “good results,” thus “we are now able to contain the virus and there’s a need to craft another campaign or action plan.”
About the best that can be said about the Philippines’ response to the pandemic is that the situation could be worse, but making the claim that “we are now able to contain the virus” is an overstatement. The number of positive cases, which exceeded the University of the Philippines’ estimate of 40,000 by end-June by a little more than R0 percent, continues to climb, and is the third-highest among Southeast Asian countries. On a percentage basis, the Philippines trails its regional peers in almost every statistic — it has the second-highest case fatality rate, the lowest case recovery rate and the highest percentage of active cases.
To be fair, the country has not experienced a general catastrophe in the same way countries like the United States or Brazil have, but whereas various lockdown measures in other countries eventually resulted in a decline in new cases, the best the Philippines seems to be able to do is to achieve a discouraging sort of steady state.
Hence, the apparent official sentiment that since this is about as good a situation as can be hoped for, we may as well try to cut our losses and get back to work. Safety measures can be taken to allow the economy to operate at about 70-percent capacity (that was the estimate of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Benjamin Diokno), which would hopefully reverse the recession and, in any case, relieve unemployment and reduced tax revenue pressures to some extent.
In view of the reality that a vaccine for the Wuhan Virus would not be available for widespread use in the Philippines in less than a year or two — assuming that an effective vaccine can actually be developed, which is, by no means, a foregone conclusion — the government’s thrust with its new “action plan” may be the best among several unpalatable options. Trying to maintain a state of low economic activity for another year or two, or conversely, just giving up and letting everyone take their chances with the Wuhan Virus, would both cost more lives and money than trying to maintain some kind of happy medium. Thus, it has finally come to a point where, in order to maintain a viable country, some level of “acceptable losses” must be established, and that is a very discouraging thought.
And it is particularly discouraging when one considers that it would still require a level of rationality in government management and level of public discipline that has not yet been demonstrated in spite of the imposition of martial-law-in-allbut-name for a couple of months so far this year. The government, which has not yet “contained” the virus, needs to develop the ability to do so, and quickly.
The public, on the other hand — in this case, meaning mainly the business sector — needs to be more aggressive in shifting to noncontact operations. Stop focusing on reopening stores, restaurants and retail outlets that could, with a bit of imagination, find a way to survive without maintaining a public physical space. It is pointless to do so, anyway; the tedious discomfort of abiding by health and safety protocols — though to most Filipinos’ credit, they are accepted as necessary — discourages patronizing places in person, except at need.
Plus, the risk of getting it wrong and being forced to again curtail business activities is likely too large for many businesses to bear. The fact that it is still happening, and on a fairly spectacular scale — the Metro Rail Transit Line 3 and the Antipolo New Public Market are good examples from just this past week — only tends to increase consumer uncertainty and further discourage them from “getting out there.”
Like it or not, the world has changed. Once that sinks in, once policymakers, businesses and the ordinary schmuck on the street realize that goal-setting and effort need to be made toward an entirely new set of targets and not past ones that cannot be recovered, the better our chances of realizing something resembling progress would be.
ben.kritz@manilatimes.net Twitter:@benkritz