Prepare for global impact of US Covid-19 resurgence
Recently,theUnitedStateshassufferedaseriesofcoronavirusdisease2019(Covid-19)surges.Theescalationwon’tstay inAmerica.Itislikelytocausecollateraldamageworldwide.
IN early June, US states began to exit from the lockdown measures, even though the epidemic curve had not been adequately flattened. On July 4, the White House sought for a “return to normal” with a celebration at Mount Rushmore, where President Trump, who has recently associated himself with far-right “white power” extremists, gave a bizarre speech warning about a “new far-left fascism.”
And, once again, the Trump crowds were not required to wear face masks or to practice social distancing, although the US has recently tallied its highest single- day totals of coronavirus infections. Currently, confirmed virus cases in the US total 3 million, with almost 135,000 deaths, while new confirmed cases average over 50,000 daily.
Despite the Independence Day, traditional July 4th routines — beer, beach and BBQs — were severely adjusted. Florida, still another state that rushed a premature exit, set a national record with more than 10,000 new cases.
Not so long ago, younger people were hosting Covid- 19 parties “like there was no tomorrow.” Many may now get what they wished for. When the White House began to mobilize against the pandemic two months ago, more than two of three patients were aged 50 or older. But today, almost 60 percent of cases are aged 18 to 49.
The Covid- 19 surge across America is no surprise, however. It was only to be expected in light of the catastrophic mishandling of the pandemic by the White House, as I projected in “The Tragedy of Missed Opportunities” in April. The following draws from that report; only data has been updated.
White House alerted Jan 3, yet mobilized 2 months later
On January 3, when the virus gene sequencing was completed by China’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and emergency monitoring initiated, Chinese officials notified the World Health Organization
(WHO) and relevant countries. That day, US CDC Director Dr. Robert R. Redfield called Health Secretary Alex Azar Jr., telling him that China had potentially discovered a new coronavirus. In turn, Azar informed the National Security Council (NSC), for a reason.
When Trump arrived in the White House three years before, his administration killed the global health unit that had been part of the NSC and that had been created to respond to potential global pandemics. Now a newly created team began daily meetings in the basement of the West Wing. Yet, no mobilization occurred in the US. Instead, a long debate began within the Trump administration over “what to tell to the American public.”
Between the first recorded case in Wuhan (Dec. 30, 2019) and the WHO’s announcement of the international emergency (Jan. 30, 2020), the epicenter of the outbreak was in China. Yet, first cases were also recorded in 20 countries worldwide, including the US. But once again, the Trump White House chose not to mobilize.
On March 10, the WHO declared the virus a pandemic. By then, the epicenter had moved from Europe to the US. It was
only on March 13 that the White House began to mobilize federal resources against the Covid19 outbreak. By then, there were 1,264 confirmed cases in the US and 277 deaths. The figures grossly underestimated the spread of the virus since basic testing capacity and diagnoses were lagging into April.
Trump’s crisis mishandling had deferred the inevitable awakening but when it finally ensued, it would prove devastating, as I projected in April. Subdued by the trade wars and after growth of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the US gross domestic product growth suffered a minus- fivepercent contraction in the first quarter and is likely to cope with a historical minus- 53- percent plunge in the second quarter.
Playing the blame game
As the Trump administration began national mobilization weeks belatedly, it struggled to reduce the economic damage by reopening the economy after mid- April. Trump gave governors a road map for recovering from the economic pain of the coronavirus pandemic.