President Duterte’s UNGA speech gets high marks

than the Thucydides Trap clamping down or a new Cold War settling in. The prospect of mankind’s extinction by nuclear and other modes of mass destruction or by climate change has never been more real.

President Duterte’s speech mentioned neither of the superpowers by name. But there is implicit but clear criticism of the positions of those superpowers on the issues touched upon by the speech. No doubt President Duterte had China in mind when he called on stakeholders in the South China Sea and other troubled spots in the world to submit their disputes to any of the various forms of peaceful settlement mentioned in the Manila Declaration unanimously approved by the UNGA in its Resolution 30/10. The ruling of the arbitration panel is of course the result of the case filed by the Philippines against China under exploring the Annex VII of the Unclos. The panel concluded that there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources of the sea area falling within the so-called nine-dash line. The tribunal found, inter alia, that prior to the convention, the waters of the South China Sea beyond the territorial sea were legally part of the high seas; vessels from any State could fully navigate and fish. It concluded that historical navigation and fishing by China in the waters of the South China Sea represented the exercise of the high seas freedoms rather than a historic right and that there was no evidence that China had historically exercised exclusive control over the waters of the South China or prevented other States from exploiting their resources. After finding that none of the features claimed by China was capable of generating an exclusive economic zone (EEZ), the tribunal found that certain sea areas are within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines because those areas are not overlapped by any possible entitlement of China. The tribunal then found that China had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights in its EEZ by a) interfering with Philippine fishing rights and petroleum exploration; b) constructing artificial islands; and c) failing to prevent Chinese fishermen from fishing in the zone. The tribunal held that fishermen from the Philippines had traditional rights at Scarborough Shoal, and China had interfered in those rights by denying access. The tribunal moreover found that China’s large-scale land reclamation and construction of artificial islands caused severe harm to the coral reef environment and violated its obligation to preserve and protect fragile ecosystems.

Chinese bullying

China has refused to recognize the ruling, and when President Duterte raised the matter of the arbitral award, President Xi Jinping threatened going to war. China’s bullying of the South China Sea coastal states has continued unabated, including attacking and intimidating fishing or exploring their exclusive economic zones. By its latest submission to the UN, China is not just claiming sovereignty over the area covered by the 9-dash line but the entirety of the South China Sea, including all the high seas or what has been referred to as “the great maritime superhighway” transporting $4.5 trillion of seaborne trade each year. China has signaled requiring all countries to get clearances for passage and overflight over the great waterway. Because the oceans of the world seamlessly flow into each other, China menaces not just navigation in the South China Sea but worldwide navigation as well. As President Duterte stated in appreciation, more and more countries are expressing support for the arbitral ruling.

It seems to us (or so we hope) that it is the US that is siding with the Philippines on the arbitral ruling over the South China Sea rather than the other way around. While the Philippines has been consistently oriented towards multilateralism, US leadership and interest in the UN have waned with the Trump Administration’s unilateralist and isolationist tendencies highlighted by its withdrawal from the World Health Organization at the height of a pandemic which has the US leading all infected countries. Contrary to Trump’s go-it-alone approach to the pandemic, President Duterte in the strongest terms called for global cooperation in combating the coronavirus. He has advocated, along with fellow Asean and Non-Aligned Movement members, treatment of any and all anti-Covid-19 vaccines developed as a global common good that should be made available and accessible to all countries and peoples. (Developing countries able to manufacture the vaccines in massive quantities should be free to do so under the compulsory licensing provisions of the WTO Trips Agreement.) The US is not a state party or has withdrawn from treaties the Philippines considers of fundamental importance, especially the Unclos and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. And now the Philippines takes pride in being an early signatory of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons whose negotiation the US refused to join on the ground that the proposed treaty was “impractical.”

The late timing of the Trump administration’s robust expression of support for the arbitral ruling has made some suspect that it was but a part of the China scapegoating strategy of the Trump reelection campaign. There are however signs that it is part of a more serious policy effort that may endure regardless of whoever is elected president in the coming US elections. The US and other maritime and trading powers have been conducting freedom of navigation operations for sometime now, aware of the importance to them and the world of keeping the South China Sea open and free. The US Department of Defense Indo- Pacific Strategy Report containing a plan for “preparedness, partnerships and promoting a networked region” is a well-considered effort expanding the perspective of Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” to cover the South Asian region as well and focusing on containing the influence of countries following the rule of the strong rather than international law. The European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization appear headed to following a similar strategy. Germany has announced an economic policy of reducing its dependence on the China market and favoring democracies in Asia like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India and member-countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Germany has joined other most powerful countries in Europe, the United Kingdom and France in sending a collective note to the UN challenging the legality of China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea.

International coalition

A strong international coalition appears to be developing to apply maximum pressure on China to respect the arbitral ruling and withdraw its expansive illegal claims in the South China Sea. It will be applying economic means that might affect the economic growth that China uses to build up its military might. It will also involve some saber-rattling, following the time- proven adage that to prepare for peace is to prepare for war.

On the assumption that China is unbending in its expansionism, some observers have concluded that the South China Sea region is headed towards war. We hope that China can be made to come to its senses and realize that the increasing prosperity and well-being of its people rests on international cooperation rather than international conflict, on the rule of law rather than the rule of the strong. The members of the United Nations can then work together to bring about a New and Better World for All.