THE GLOBAL VACCINE RACE AGAINST TIME AND VARIANTS
GENOMIC EPIDEMIOLOGY OF NOVEL CORONAVIRUS
help the virus evade the immune system and vaccines.
In January 2020, when the epicenter was still in Wuhan, the sequence 19A dominated existing cases. By March, new mutations had spread in the UK, US and elsewhere (19B and 20A etc.). After half a dozen other major strains, the British variant B.1.1.7 (also known as 20I/501Y.V1 as in the figure) is surging (see figure).
The nightmare scenario
In a few months’ time, the proportions may look very different again. The British variant has surged in just two to three months. Even in countries that lead vaccination drives, critical mass will take months to achieve. Consequently, the frequencies of these viral clades may look very different by summer or fall 2021.
According to the latest research, a Californian variant
CAL2.0C has surged to account for more than half the cases in the state. By the end of March, it could cover 90 percent of Californian cases. Reportedly, infections from this variant, already detected in other US states, seem to produce a viral load double that of other variants.
The UK and California variants are each armed with enhanced capabilities. The concern is a nightmare scenario in which the two viruses could meet in a single person and swap mutations. The outcome could be an even more dangerous strain.
The longer the global pandemic will last, the greater is the probability of more transmissible and lethal variants. Moreover, poorer economies are likely to remain more vulnerable to consequent human costs and economic damage.
Global Covid-19 cases exceed 115 million and deaths almost 2.6 million. Despite deceleration, daily new cases amount to 400,000 and daily deaths over 9,000.
The vaccine race is against time and variants and time is not yet on our side.
Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net.