The global vaccine race against time and variants

Despite pandemic fatigue and complacency in too many countries, vaccine inequality will penalize poorer economies, which could also prove to be more vulnerable to likely new variants.

IN the past month or two, too many countries struggling with Covid-19 have been lulled into fatigue and complacency despite holiday spikes. Since vaccination drives have begun, the assumption is that pandemic challenge is pretty much behind.

Both assumptions are flawed. Vaccine drives in emerging and developing economies will occur significantly later than in advanced economies. And by then, new variants may test vaccine effectiveness.

The Philippines is no exception. While the first vaccination drive is set to begin on Monday, March 1, mass vaccination will occur months behind those in highincome economies. Second, although cumulative Covid-19 cases have fallen significantly from the peak figures, the epidemic curve hasn’t been flattened yet.

On the contrary, more than 2,650 new Covid-19 cases were recorded on Friday, the highest since Oct. 17, 2020. Meanwhile, an increasing number of targeted lockdowns have been implemented in Metro Manila.

The net effect? When highincome economies will eventually open their borders, middleincome economies such as the Philippines will be exposed to new strains that could prove more contagious, more protracted and more lethal.

Vaccine inequality penalizes poorer economies

In early February, or two months into the global roll-out of coronavirus vaccines, a handful of high-income economies in the West had hoarded 80 percent of the vaccination doses used thus far.

There were almost 130 countries with 2.5 billion people that had been unable to administer even a single dose.

The disparity is far greater if China, an upper-middle-income nation, is excluded. In that case, middle-income nations represent nearly half of global coronavirus cases, but just 17 percent of doses administered.

In economies of more than 50 million people, two high-income economies, the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK), have been most active in hoarding vaccines after each mismanaged the pandemic.

They are followed by Turkey, Germany, the Eurpean Union, Italy and France. Except for Turkey, most middle-income countries come only thereafter, including China, Russia, Bangladesh,

Mexico, India and so on.

New variants could prolong the crises

Thanks to the failure of multilateral cooperation in the course of the global pandemic, the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths is far higher than initially anticipated. In turn, huge numbers contribute to the rising probability of adverse strains.

In recent months, new variants of the original virus have been spotted in several countries, including the UK, Brazil, South Africa and the US. In December, scientists in the UK stated that the B.1.1.7 variant might be at least 50 percent more transmissible than the original one in Wuhan. Another variant of great concern is the mutation in South Africa because it seems to involve a genetic change that may