MYANMAR SUFFERS AS WORLD DITHERS

KUALA LUMPUR: Over the past weekend, the confrontational situation in Myanmar has apparently escalated. The term “apparently” would perhaps have to be highlighted here, as telecommunication access into and out of Myanmar has remained sporadic at best ever since the Myanmar military took sudden control of the country and restricted contacts with the rest of the world.

There have been intermittent reports — from diplomatic channels as well as those who managed to breach the walled internet — that there have been shooting by the military, using not only rubber pellets or tear canisters, but also live bullets, of unarmed civilians, who took to the streets to protest the military takeover. The exact extent and number of casualties are still uncertain, but it is quite certain that there have been fatalities.

The photos and videos which did manage to come out of Myanmar over the past few weeks presented images of courage and encouragement. The citizens of various countries would of course have their respective idiosyncratic ways and means of going about peacefully protesting the heinous and hideous deeds of the authorities. Some focus on blaring sounds and colorful optics. Others present charismatic protest leaders to capture the attention of the international media.

In Myanmar, it would appear that the protesters often organize themselves by their professions and social groupings. Doctors and dentists, lawyers and longshoremen, factory workers and freight forwarders, to name a few, form their respective protest columns, often with their own uniforms of the same color, as they bravely march down the main streets of Yangon, Myanmar’s economic capital. Similarly, monks, imams, priests and pastors, to mention but a few groups of religious leaders from the various denominations that make up the multifaceted religious landscape of Myanmar, led their various protest prayers in front of their respective houses of worship.

And of course protesting on the streets are also the ordinary citizens of Myanmar, including those who have had the privilege of gaining exposure to foreign societies and cultures as Myanmar gradually opened up over the past decade after many decades of, guess what, military rule. These somewhat privileged and arguably benefited elite members of Myanmar society have also chosen to go out into the streets as they too feel that the overwhelming will of the people as expressed in the recent general election, must not be ruthlessly nullified by an unelected military.

It is as yet unclear what were the real reasons behind the military’s predawn takeover of the country at the start of last month, when the new Myanmar parliament was supposed to meet. The military’s official line emphasized what it perceived to be irregularities in the latest election cycle. But in any case, the current Myanmar constitution, which the military itself drafted, guarantees a quarter of the parliament seats to the military, without having to stand for popular election as the other three-quarters. Some of the most powerful ministries such as defense are constitutionally reserved for the military. And as the consent of more than threequarters of parliamentarians is required to pass constitutional amendments, the military is virtually guaranteed a permanent hold on political power.

As this author has pointed out previously, military coups and subsequent rule by military juntas were often tolerated, if not outright encouraged or succoured, by the superpowers during the Cold War, which were more concerned with their overarching global confrontation with one another. And Burma (as Myanmar was then known), then also under military rule, was paradoxically a “beneficiary” of such a nuanced global face-off between the superpowers. The then military regime was left to its own declaration and implementation of its own brand of neutrality, essentially a supposedly self-sustaining economy closed to the rest of the world. It was not uncomfortable for the military then as it maintained an ironclad rule over the vast country.

After the Myanmar military took over the country for a second time in late 1980s, following a very brief period of supposed democratic transition, the international and regional signals were somewhat mixed. On the one hand, flush from their victory over the Eastern camp which collapsed at about the same time, the Western powers decided to no longer stomach most autocratic and military rules around the world. Economic sanctions were imposed by the same on Myanmar to “persuade” the generals to hand back power to a civilian government.

But on the other hand, while expressing concern over the then regressive situation in Myanmar, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) even admitted Myanmar as a member state. To be blunt, at most lip service was paid by many Asean member states to the demands by Western powers of similar sanctions on Myanmar, as many of these neighboring countries continued to do business with Myanmar.

So, the foreign signals received by the generals were mixed. But in any case they decided to relent again a decade ago, and started once again to share power with a civilian government. It is admittedly unclear this time around which part of the vast political and economic interests they retained did they feel had been threatened anew.

At the time this article was being written, a special Asean foreign ministers’ meeting was about to be held to discuss the Myanmar situation. Nevertheless, nothing beyond stronger language in condemning the coup is expected from the meeting. This is primarily due to Asean’s two primary functioning principles: non-intervention in the domestic affairs of member states, and consensual decision-making by the same. There were already Asean member states which are themselves under military or autocratic rules which had publicly emphasized the non-intervention principle with regard to Myanmar, perhaps lest similar interventions might befall them one day. And as they oppose intervention, a consensus could not be reached within Asean on this somewhat urgent matter.

And as the international communities and regional neighbors continue to dither on the Myanmar coup, the latest developments there of shootings using live rounds are not encouraging. Perhaps the only silver lining thus far is the aforementioned temporary ceasing of enmity between some of the various religious groups there, as they appear to have united in their opposition to the coup.