Metro Manila virus surges worrying – OCTA
THE National Capital Region (NCR or Metro Manila) is experiencing surges in the number of new coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) cases as the country begins its mass vaccinations for frontline health care workers.
According to the March 1 monitoring report of academe-based OCTA Research Group, the rise in the number of cases in some cities in Metro Manila has become a “serious cause for concern,” with the four-day average number of new cases at
942 and seven-day average at 762 cases, an increase of 61 percent.
It said the period of negative growth rates in cases in the region had ended and that the trend had been reversed.
OCTA listed the cities of Pasay, Quezon, Manila, Makati, Taguig, Malabon, Parañaque and Navotas as having upward trends in new cases. Makati, Malabon and Navotas had daily attack rates of 7 per 100,000, putting them in the high-risk area classification of the Department of Health.
Pasay City had the highest attack rate in NCR, with 21.75 cases per 100,000 population.
The reproduction rate in the region is now at r-naught (R0)=1.5, suggesting increased transmissibility of the virus in the region, much higher than the reproduction rate for the entire country at R0=1.2.
OCTA said the reproduction number of Metro Manila was on an increasing trend as the cases had become widespread and reversing it could be difficult.
The group projected that if the current reproduction number holds for NCR, the region would increase its daily case rate from 770 to 2,200 per day, leading to 280,000 total cases by the end of March. If current reproduction rates hold in the country, there will be 665,000 cases by the end of the month, increasing to 715,000 if there is an escalation of reproduction number, especially in the NCR.
It hinted that the increase in the number of cases may not only be caused by the rise of mobility within and among provinces, but also because of the reopening of the economy and a possibility that a new and more contagious variant of the virus is now spreading in the region.
Despite the increase, the hospital bed capacity in the region remains manageable, with 36 percent overall hospital capacity and 52 percent intensive care unit bed utilization rate.
Aside from NCR, case increases were also reported in Baguio City and La Trinidad, Benguet and Tabuk, Kalinga, while Cebu City, having still the most number of new Covid-19 cases in the country, has its upward trend slowing down.
OCTA said while the surge was “not a question of if but how much,” it could still be mitigated by implementing localized lockdowns in key areas with reported surges and impose strict border controls between NCR and other provinces.
It urged the government to ensure the urgent but efficient deployment of vaccines to health care facilities in the next two weeks and to urge medical frontliners to get themselves vaccinated.
“There is a very small window of opportunity for health workers in the NCR to get vaccinated while the surge is still in its early stages and hospital occupancy in the region is still manageable. Our health care workers in the region must seize this opportunity,” OCTA said.
Responding to the OCTA Report, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the department coordinated with other agencies and local government units in strengthening their Covid-19 response to mitigate the surge.
“Ang mga local governments ngayon are implementing these localized lockdowns… and ’yan na rin po ang masusing pagbabantay for the detection of the variants so we can easily contain the infection, at nand’yan na rin ang pagpapaalala sa ating mga kababayan na (Our local governments are implementing these localized lockdowns… and we are also maintaining stringent monitoring for the detection of variants to contain the infection, as well as the constant reminder to our countrymen that) we should not be complacent at this point,” Vergeire added.
She said hospitals were ready to accommodate patients in case a surge happens, as well as the temporary treatment and monitoring centers and isolation areas.
On Tuesday, the country logged 2,067 new cases, pushing the country’s overall tally to 580,442. Of this number, 33,610 cases are active.