An early start for 2025
MAY 2025 is 34 months away, but it seems the House speaker is focused on building a beachhead for the midterms getting all national and local incumbents moving, beginning with the demotion of Senior Deputy Speaker Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and the resignation of Vice President Sara Duterte from her party, as well as the acquisition of ABS-CBN as a content partner to his media empire.
There are seven reelectionists for 2025: Pia Cayetano, Bato dela Rosa, Bong Go, Lito Lapid, Imee Marcos, Bong Revilla and Francis Tolentino. Only Revilla is from Lakas-CMD. Those ending their terms are Grace Poe, Nancy Binay, Sonny Angara, Koko Pimentel and Cynthia Villar.
This early the battle is now on who will put together the Senate slate. Talk is going around that the speaker will have the privilege of naming a handful in the slate, including his wife, Yedda Romualdez, of Tingog party-list representative and chairman of the Committee on Accounts of the House of Representatives. The only Lakas reelectionist in the Senate is Sen. Bong Revilla.
The decision to tap the speaker’s wife is strategic as he builds his recall for 2028. Win or lose, a Romualdez in the midterm is crucial in measuring traction for a Romualdez to run for president in 2028 or slide down to VP. Mind you, no speaker has ever won the presidency in our country.
In the run-up to 2025, key questions that need answering are: What party will the slate carry? Will there be a coalition? Will there be a unity slate? What would be the impact of the demotion of Arroyo, Lakas’ erstwhile chairman emeritus? What will be the role of the first lady, Liza Araneta-Marcos? And any mention of the first lady also comes with the buzz that she might join the fray in 2025 as a candidate for senator. Very interesting scenarios that come with such reports going to the last three years of the Marcos administration and preparing for the successor. Again, the talk among political operatives is that the Romualdez-Marcos clan is looking at 2028 and 2034. The name of the young Rep. Sandro Marcos is being mentioned because he will be 40 years old by May 2034. He is currently a Nacionalista. Is he a natural-born citizen of the Philippines?
It would be very hard for the Marcos administration to follow the political strategy of the previous administration which started with the overwhelming victory of the latecomer Rodrigo Duterte, followed by the May 2019 senatorial polls where there were two slates introduced headed by then-President Duterte via PDP-Laban and then-Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte’s Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HNP). PDP-Laban was the ruling party, and HNP was a member of the administration coalition. Duterte blanked the opposition Liberal Party in the Senate. And only one reelectionist, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, won in May 2022.
Those who are planning a run for 2025 had better dust the cobwebs and start planning outside of the political cauldron that is boiling in the House of Representatives and Lakas-CMD. There are eight key strategies that can be used to increase the chances of winning political campaigns: 1) Define and focus on key issues: identify the key issues that resonate with voters and develop a clear message that addresses those issues; 2) Build a strong campaign team: assemble a team of experienced and effective campaign strategists, volunteers, and staff who can help execute a winning campaign; 3) Develop and implement a robust ground game: reach out to voters through targeted activities, door-to-door canvassing, and get-out-the-vote efforts; 4) Raise funds and establish a strong financial foundation: raising funds and building a strong financial foundation for a campaign is critical to executing a successful campaign; 5) Leverage social media platforms: develop digital campaigns and use social media to communicate with voters and build a community of supporters; 6) Practice effective communication: develop and practice effective public speaking, debating, and messaging techniques to connect with voters; 7) Be visible: attend public events, town halls, debates, and other public forums to be visible and get your message across to the voters; and 8) Monitor the competition: monitor the opposition and adjust your strategy as needed to stay competitive.
In the 2022 elections, social media scammers went after candidates who could readily be convinced about their “magic” ability to increase followers by paying enormous sums to get a million followers in three months. Beware of these people for followers do not
win elections. Followers after all are not voters. Social media is a cascading and amplification tool. It is not a conversion tool.
Local parties are also becoming clear alternatives when national parties are in disarray and are not moving to build their numbers. Today, there is no party in governance, so it will be very hard to get the locals to assess their directions for 2025. There are two definite ends they are looking at — how Vice President Duterte will be moving in 2025 and 2028 and how she will reform and win the battle as DepEd head.
As has been said, “Every great political campaign rewrites the rules; devising a new way to win is what gives campaigns a comparative advantage against their foes.” Rodrigo Duterte threw away the political campaign book, and Sara Duterte decided to slide down to No. 2 and team up with a Marcos.