Erdogan faces tough unity task after victory
ISTANBUL, Turkey: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday confronted the tough task of uniting his deeply divided country after winning a historic runoff election to extend his two-decade rule to 2028.
Turkey’s longest-serving leader brushed aside a powerful opposition coalition, a biting economic crisis and widespread anger following a devastating earthquake in February to beat secular challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Sunday’s vote.
But the four-point victory margin was Erdogan’s narrowest of any past election, highlighting the sharp polarization the Islamicrooted conservative will contend with during his third and final term as president.
Erdogan attempted to sound conciliatory in a victory speech to thousands of jubilant supporters gathered outside the presidential palace in the capital Ankara, calling on Turks to “come together in unity and solidarity.”
Kilicdaroglu remained defiant by vowing to “continue the struggle” against Erdogan and his Justice and Development party, or AKP, which has dominated Turkish politics since 2002.
“Our elders taught us to struggle... we will not lose or give up on this country with one election,” Bugra Iyimaya, a 28-year-old academic, told Agence France-Presse (AFP) in the city of Istanbul. “We will resist and fight until the end.”
Erdogan’s elated supporters hailed the man they call “Reis” (chief) after he won the first runoff in Turkey’s history.
“The person who is beneficial to our country won. I’m very happy because of his beliefs, the rest has no importance. The country comes first,” street vendor Gursel Ozkok, 65, told AFP in Ankara.
“The man of the people won,” blared the front page of Monday’s pro-government daily Sabah.
‘It could get ugly’
Having harnessed a coalition of nationalist, conservative and religious voters, Erdogan “will double down on his brand of populist policies... political polarization is here to stay,” said Emre Peker of the Eurasia Group consultancy.
Relieving Turks of the country’s worst economic crisis since the 1990s is one of Erdogan’s urgent priorities.
Years of development, fueled by infrastructure projects and a construction sector boom, earned him huge popularity and a loyal voter base that has never abandoned him.
But inflation is now running at more than 40 percent, partly exacerbated by Erdogan’s unorthodox policy of cutting interest rates to try and cool spiraling prices.
Analysts say Erdogan’s lavish campaign spending pledges and unwavering attachment to lower interest rates will further strain banks’ currency reserves and the lira, which edged down against the dollar on Monday.
“The current setup is just not sustainable,” noted Timothy Ash of BlueBay Asset Management, pointing to the tens of billions of dollars the central bank has blown to prop up the lira.
If Erdogan refuses to perform a Uturn on interest rates and abandon the lira, “it could get ugly,” he warned.
A colossal reconstruction effort in Turkey’s southeast is still at an early stage after the February 6 earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people and destroyed entire cities.
The disaster compounded the economic difficulties as hundreds of thousands lost their livelihoods overnight and forecasters cut Turkey’s 2023 growth outlook, with the damage estimated at more than $100 billion.
‘Balancing act’
United States President Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin were among the world leaders lining up to congratulate Erdogan, but major diplomatic conundrums lie in the 69-year-old’s in-tray.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is anxiously waiting for Ankara to approve Sweden’s bid to join the US-led defense alliance.
Erdogan has blocked the bid, accusing Stockholm of sheltering Turkish opposition figures with alleged links to outlawed Kurdish militants.
Observers expect Erdogan to continue playing a bridging role between Russia and its Western partners for Turkey’s benefit.
Ties with neighboring Syria remain at a low ebb after Turkey backed rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad in the civil war. Recent Russian-mediated talks failed to achieve a breakthrough toward a normalization of relations.
Monday also coincides with the anniversary of the 1453 conquest of Constantinople — Istanbul’s old name — by the Ottomans, a symbolic commemoration following Erdogan’s victory and his far-right nationalist allies’ parliamentary majority.