Myanmar: A jigsaw where not all the pieces fit

CHINA has brokered a ceasefire between the military junta and a coalition of ethnic armed groups in Myanmar, providing a respite in the fighting that has been raging for the past three years.

Before Beijing stepped in, the junta had been struggling to stop the advance of the minority armies, which had seized control of several towns along Myanmar’s border with China.

It is the biggest challenge so far confronting Myanmar’s military government led by Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, who ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s government in February 2021.

A bloody crackdown on dissenters led to the arrest of thousands of civilians. The United Nations has estimated that more than 1,000 were killed as soldiers used guns, batons and tear gas to break up protests.

The junta has since been busy quelling uprisings that have erupted in several regions.

The wave of repression continued despite international condemnation and economic sanctions clamped by the United States and other Western countries on junta members and their business cronies.

Hlaing also continues to defy overtures from the Association of Southeast Nations (Asean) to work out a deal to deescalate the political crisis that has gripped its member-state.

Last November, Indonesia hosted talks between the junta, armed resistance groups and the National Unity Government (NUG) that the military ousted “to bring conflicting parties to an inclusive dialogue, to reduce violence and to ensure the safe delivery of humanitarian assistance for the people of Myanmar affected by the conflict.”

The Asean has been pressing the junta to agree to the Five-Point Consensus, a plan calling for a ceasefire, a dialogue, the designation of an Asean mediator, providing humanitarian aid and sending a delegation to Myanmar to meet with all parties concerned.

Hlaing has been biding his time, confident that the regional bloc’s consensus-based process will work in his favor.

“This organization is not designed to exclude. It is not designed to punish,” noted one political observer. “It has always been about inclusion and allowing countries to do things at their own pace. It’s not being expected to act in ways that it hasn’t before.”

In negotiating a ceasefire, China pulled off in just weeks what the Asean couldn’t accomplish in years.

China, however, has its own reasons for closely monitoring developments in Myanmar, its southern neighbor. The Asian superpower has been propping up the junta, believing it will provide the political stability to prevent the conflict from spilling across the border.

But Beijing’s confidence in the military government has begun to erode for two reasons. First, the junta has been dealt significant battlefield losses by the ethnic resistance groups. The ethnic alliance claims to have taken over 422 bases and seven towns since October. Last week, it said it now controls a key northern town bordering China.

Continued fighting could trigger a stream of Myanmar refugees crossing the border, a situation China does not relish.

Second, the military rulers have not closed down the cyber scam hubs operating in Myanmar, whose victims are mainly Chinese.

With the junta on the back foot, the NUG wasted no time offering its own peace deal with China. It has sweetened the pot, saying it could bring in direct investments to Myanmar and help fight cross-border crime.

With China holding all the aces, it can dictate the political path for Myanmar. The country risks becoming a jigsaw where not all the pieces fit.

A power-sharing scheme will have to be worked out between the different players, not an easy task.

Hlaing will not easily give up the reins of power. The NUG could demand for a return to civilian governance. The ethnic alliance might call for autonomous control of the regions it has seized.

Another problematic piece of the puzzle is Asean’s role in the efforts to restore order in Myanmar. Will its plans dovetail with Beijing’s vision?

China’s foreign ministry said it hopes “the relevant parties in Myanmar can conscientiously implement the agreement, exercise maximum restraint toward each other and solve the issues through dialogue and consultations.”

It will take more than wishful thinking to get the job done.