Chaos: Choice and chance for change?
THERE is just so much chaos in the global and in Philippine politics with so many moving parts that exhaust many of us. Polarized politicians have become more interesting than any showbiz break-up stories. The twists are becoming more mindboggling and sometimes unbelievable. The characters in these dramatic exercises seem to be good actors with multiple directors and scriptwriters. But its horrors are frightening because its effects are felt and real.
Where is all this chaos taking us? With what prism should we see this chaos?
The chaos theory provides a lens to understand the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity that often define the political dynamics. This article explores intriguing nonlinear dynamics and unforeseen consequences that govern various disciplines, including politics.
Theories are simply organized concepts and constructs that describe and explain (and some, predict) a phenomenon. Theoretical development and applications are interesting cognitive activities in science as it asserts that practice without theory is blind and that theory without practice is empty.
Chaos theory
In the 1960s, Edward Lorenz, a meteorologist at MIT, while studying long-term weather patterns, had a breakthrough discovery that tiny differences in initial conditions could lead to drastically different outcomes in weather simulations. This was termed “the butterfly effect” that highlighted the inherent sensitivity of complex systems to seemingly insignificant triggers. This sowed the seeds of chaos theory that sparked the theory development and practical applications.
The understanding of the universality of chaotic systems expanded with scientists Mitchell Feigenbaum, David Ruelleand and author James Gleick.
Chaos theory challenges the traditional Newtonian view of a deterministic universe governed by predictable laws as it reveals that intricate, nonlinear systems like the weather exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions. It asserts that even the tiniest shift in starting points can have drastically different outcomes, making long-term forecasts practically impossible.
Chaos theory has found intriguing applications in the arena of politics with Suay Nilhan Açıkali, William Henderson and Rafael Reyes — political scientists who explored and highlighted its potential for understanding political instability, volatile social movements, unpredictable dynamics, and even toward more informed and adaptable strategies.
Chaos theory seems to make sense of seemingly unpredictable phenomena in both the natural world and politics. It makes us move beyond the simplistic narratives and perspectives, and linear interpretations and inferences, especially in politics that we watch and engage in our own ways, as we are characters as well in this drama series.
Chaos through philosophical lens
Given the historical and contextual gaps, the classical philosophies of Aristotle and Plato recognize such chaos. With caution not to risk anachronism (a chronological inconsistency in some arrangement in a time period to which it does not belong), this part is just to appreciate the wisdom of these wise philosophers whose classic thoughts are seldom out of time.
The intention is not to force-fit a modern scientific theory onto ancient thought but to explore potential alignments. This may trigger deeper reflection on both and then gain a richer introspection and circumspection of the complexities in understanding the universe, randomness, order and unforeseen consequences.
Plato’s allegory of the cave emphasized on the limited perceptions and the potential for unexpected enlightenment, which in the chaos theory is the notion of sensitive dependence on initial conditions. The journey out of the cave, a seemingly insignificant shift in perspective, can dramatically alter one’s understanding of reality. There is also the theory of forms which emphasizes on unchanging ideal forms behind the ever-changing world of appearances.
The chaos theory’s randomness and unpredictability seem to be at odds with Aristotle’s concept of teleology, where all things strive toward a predetermined goal. However, Aristotle also acknowledged the existence of contingency, where certain events occur by chance without being predetermined which is parallel with the idea of attractors in chaos theory, where systems tend to gravitate toward certain stable states despite unpredictable fluctuations.
There is resonance with chaos theory’s holistic approach and Aristotle’s emphasis on studying nature in its complex entirety, rather than breaking it down into isolated parts. The understanding that complex systems exhibit unpredictable behavior not readily deducible from individual components is anchored on Aristotle’s concept of emergence, where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
We may still look into other classical philosophers like Heraclitus, who emphasized flux and change, and Zeno of Elea, who explored paradoxes related to infinity and motion. But suffice it to say that times may have changed but there are available frameworks to view the choreography of human affairs and the intricate dance of humanity in the harmony of the universe across time.
Critics of chaos theory
Chaos theory, as any theory, is not immune to criticism. Its oversimplification of complex systems and its limited empirical applications make it a target of criticisms. Of course, the chaos theory’s mathematical models struggle to capture the nuances of human behavior, cultural dynamics and specific historical contexts.
Political psychologist Sarah Khan claims that chaos theory is “a seductive intellectual trap, offering the illusion of scientific rigor while obfuscating the real sources of political instability.” This makes its application to the complex realities like political systems similar to predicting the weather with a coin toss, in the words of political theorist Mark Robinson. The interesting metaphors ultimately fail to provide concrete tools for understanding or influencing political events, as international relations expert David Stern puts it.
Sociologist Anna Martinez good-humoredly says that focusing on butterflies flapping their wings distracts us from the real drivers of political change, such as economic inequality and social movements. Political activist Thomas Lee warns that overreliance on chaos theory can lead to fatalistic attitudes, discouraging engagement in political action and reinforcing the status quo.
Nascent as it may be, chaos theory, however, offers a valuable framework for appreciating the inherent unpredictability of political landscapes and encourages a more open-minded approach to understanding political dynamics.
Chaos, so what?
The iconic metaphor of chaos theory translates to a butterfly flapping its wings in Malacañang potentially causing a hurricane in Batanes and Jolo, or even the lives of the overseas Filipinos.
Political analyses are not futile. As chaos theory doesn’t eliminate order; it unveils hidden patterns within apparent randomness. Despite unpredictable variations, we can still identify areas in the political landscape where systems tend to gravitate, which key factors may influence informed policy decisions and strategic planning.
We may analyze the rise and fall of revolutions to be able to predict the tipping points for significant change or identifying vulnerabilities within seemingly stable regimes, as we have seen in our history. We may learn caution and nuanced diplomatic approaches when we recognize the sensitive dependence of international alliances and conflicts, similar to what we are experiencing these days. Understanding the influence of small events, like a viral social media video, and individual decision, like change of political party, within a broader sociopolitical context may enable us to analyze electoral behaviors.
By demystifying the inherent unpredictability and recognizing the interconnectedness of the invisible threads that bind seemingly disparate events, we can gain a deeper understanding of the fascinating, chaotic dance that is politics. Chaos theory is not a crystal ball that captures even the snapshots of Philippine politics. In the words of the 77-year-old social scientist professor Clarita Carlos, chaos theory is only one of the structures of explanation in social science. It is another prism for viewing political life. After all, the chaos noted is really the unknowns’ unknown in our political life.
Has chaos theory provided powerful explanations for many aspects of our political lives? Amid chaos, do we stand a chance for change? The choice is ours. Let us flap our wings. Together.