Why US elections may nudge Asia closer to war

IN pondering the likely impact of American elections on Asia’s peace and security, two issues are crucial to keep in mind.

First, the overarching foreign policy objective of the United States, expounded in its National Security Strategy (NSS) in October 2022. In its very title, Chapter 3 spells out Washington’s top global priority: “Out-Competing China and Constraining Russia” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/BidenHarris-Administrations-NationalSecurity-Strategy-10.2022.pdf).

Maintaining America’s global power is seen in the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) advancing toward Russia since the 1990s despite Western pledges to desist from expansion and even let Moscow join — wasting a great opportunity for lasting peace.

And when Russia agreed to end its invasion in March 2022 if Ukraine did not join NATO, America nixed the deal so that continued war and sanctions would weaken Russia. But after nearly two years of Ukraine’s devastation, half a million deaths and many millions of Ukrainians displaced, Russia is far stronger militarily and economically.

The other underlying factor in assessing how US elections may affect Asia is the West’s lost military dominance. After giving Ukraine massive weaponry, NATO stocks are greatly diminished, while its combat-ready troops are limited after decades of peace.

A top Washington think tank already warned a year ago that US precision-guided munitions would last just a week of fighting over Taiwan, not even Europe. But Russia now has by far the largest, most powerful army in Europe and, said the think tank, won’t run out of missiles “ever.”

Fighting in the Middle East further stretches America’s military, so Washington now seeks to avoid or wind down conflicts. NATO has quietly urged Ukraine to negotiate. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has labored to keep Israel from inflicting unconscionable Palestinian casualties and press Arab nations not to join the fray. And as noted in Part 1 of this column last Thursday, America and China have resumed military-to-military contacts to prevent hostilities.

Back to President Trump?

How would US elections affect the foregoing situation and Asian peace and security?

First, President Joe Biden would keep dodging major conflicts since American casualties and battlefield setbacks would bring poll defeat to him and his Democratic Party. Probable opponent Donald Trump, now leading voter surveys, opposes US military deployment and intervention abroad.

But if Trump’s victory looms, ranking officials favoring continued global dominance and intervention may trigger a limited conflict, hoping to lock American and allied forces in confrontation and boost armed engagement overseas.

Sadly for us Filipinos, the most likely place for contained encounters might be our country. Flare-ups between big powers in Taiwan, Korea, the Middle East and Ukraine could rapidly escalate to full-scale or even nuclear war.

But a firefight between China and, say, joint US-Philippines sea patrols could be quickly defused while also played up in the media. The alarming news might then spur massive American deployment here, with Filipinos cheering despite the enormous war risk for us. The sea clash could push other Asian countries to seek Washington’s protection.

That advances its agenda. With American military dominance faded, military-funded think tank RAND Corp. urges getting allies like us to host more US troops and arms, including missiles targeting enemy ships and bases, while building up our own armies. This gets Uncle Sam more bang for the buck while alienating China from other nations (“How to Reverse the Erosion of US and Allied Military Power and Influence,” https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2555-1.html).

Two deadly horsemen

How might heaven view this emerging security situation, especially if Washington gets Asian countries to accept its forces and augment their own, as it has done to us?

The last book of the Bible, called “the revelation of Jesus Christ” in its very first line, expounds in Chapter 6 (Revelation 6:1–8) about four horsemen bringing death to huge swaths of humanity worldwide in the end times before the Second Coming of Christ.

The first horseman on a white steed “had a bow; and a crown was given to him, and he went out conquering and to conquer.” The second red-mounted rider “was permitted to take peace from the earth, so that men should slay one another; and he was given a great sword.”

One interpretation sees the white and red horsemen symbolizing Conquest and Conflict: the empire-building of powerful nations and the endless drive for national security and might through the sword, that is, greater and more fearsome forces and firepower.

Today, more than empires past, Western and Eurasian blocs dominate our world and could very well unleash planet-crushing war on us all. The US security strategy paper spells out the confrontation among today’s conquerors:

“The PRC (China) is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it. Beijing has ambitions to create an enhanced sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific and to become the world’s leading power.”

As for the red rider’s sword in our time, worldwide military expenditures have exceeded $2 trillion a year since 2020 and reached $2.24 trillion last year. What’s worse and far more worrisome: spending on atomic weapons began growing again in 2020 after decades of decline due to US-Russia pacts limiting their nukes — agreements all scrapped in recent years.

Now, America maintains its leading role among nations mainly by military prowess, even as China, the largest trading partner of most countries, offers investment, aid, credit and commerce. US might is less valued during peace, but now we have wars.

In Europe, Russia might make NATO rearm with mammoth gains for US and allied military industries. The Middle East will also beef up armies and armaments. And if Asia is spooked by China incidents, we too may seek peace with superpowers and weapons merchants.

But arms races intensify fears and make conflict more likely. Let’s pray the world listens to Jesus’ warning to St. Peter in the Gospel of Matthew (Mt 26:52): “Put your sword back into its place, for all who take the sword will perish by the sword.”