‘Strong’El Niño to persist until Q2 of 2024 – Pagasa

THE existing “strong” El Niño phenomenon may persist until the second quarter of the year and would affect many provinces that will experience dry spells and drought.

El Niño will also affect the water levels of the country’s major dams, including Angat Dam in Norzagaray, Bulacan, which is the main source of water supply for Metro Manila and adjoining provinces.

Chris Perez, assistant weather services chief of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), told Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon that they have been conducting monthly climate forums with concerned government agencies to ensure that all programs related to El Niño will be fully implemented to minimize its impacts on people and agriculture.

Pagasa said that Metro Manila and 26 other provinces would likely experience a drought by the end of February due to the effects of El Niño.

Some of the affected provinces in Luzon include Abra, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Nueva Vizcaya, Bataan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Aurora, Cavite, Rizal, Palawan, Isabela, Mountain Province, Zambales, Occidental Mindoro and Pangasinan.

A drought occurs when there are five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall or three consecutive months of way below-normal rainfall condition (more than 60 percent less than the average).

Although minimal, Perez said that the water levels in dams, including that of Angat, are decreasing as a result of the minimal rainfall.

He said the northeast monsoon, locally known as “amihan,” was a blessing because it has helped maintain the dams’ normal water levels over the past months.

But this would be quite different once this weather system ends in February, when the dry season sets in, Perez said.

“This El Niño is really a big factor; although the country would experience less supply of water during the dry season but with this phenomenon, we could expect that the water levels in our dams would continue to dip,” the Pagasa official warned.

”And that would have a domino effect because even the agricultural sector and power generation would be affected too,” he added.

But the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System said that there would be enough supply of potable water from Angat but reminded the public to continue conserving and using water prudently.