Sierra Madre supply mission

At least 17 Chinese maritime militia ships have been deployed to the area, but they were mostly waiting west of Mischief Reef.

“A very different Philippines resupply to (Ayungin Shoal). China’s usual blockade hasn’t materialized,” Powell noted.

He said that in the past, the Chinese vessels usually took up blockading positions as the resupply convoy approached.

“Today, they (Chinese ships) are mostly sitting back behind Mischief Reef,” said Powell, who is also the lead for Project Myoushu at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation.

He said the unusually placid situation could be the result of the agreement reached by the Philippines and China in Shanghai last month.

Powell was referring to the 8th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea on January 17, during which the two countries agreed to “improve maritime communication mechanism in the South China Sea,” starting this year.

The two countries also “agreed that continuous dialogue is important to keep peace and stability at sea” and “assured each other of their mutual commitment to avoid escalation of tensions.”

“Whatever deal the two sides made in Shanghai may have dialed down China’s aggression, for now,” he said.

The Cabra escorted the supply ship to the Sierra Madre, while the Sindangan hung back off Sabina Shoal.

“Maybe because China is not blockading or because there was only one resupply vessel, Unaiza May 1, with the others (Unaiza May 1 and M/L Kalayaan) damaged in recent encounters or a combination of both factors,” Powell said.

“Of course, there are certainly (China vessels) we cannot see because they are running automatic information system (AIS)-dark such as CCG 5203, but those we can detect have kept their distance,” he added.

The Chinese harassment began in earnest in February 2023, when a CCG vessel pointed a military-grade laser at a PCG ship escorting a resupply mission of the Philippine Navy.

In June, Chinese ships blocked two PCG vessels to keep them from entering Ayungin.

On August 5, a CCG fired a water cannon at a Philippine boat en route to Ayungin.

In December, a CCG ship rammed a Philippine resupply vessel.

China blames the Philippines for the incidents, saying Manila continues to defy an earlier consensus about the transportation of large-scale construction materials to the Sierra Madre as a prelude to the permanent occupation of the reef.

In an interview on Friday, Manila-based think tank Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute (ACPSSI) President Herman Tiu Laurel said he expects a “very good diplomatic weather ahead for the Philippines

and China.

Laurel said the “smooth and unimpeded sailing” of Philippine vessels to bring humanitarian supplies to the Philippine troops in Ayungin is “clearly the result of levelheaded diplomacy” between Manila and Beijing.

He was referring to the meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo on Dec. 20, 2023, and their subsequent talks in Shanghai.

Laurel said these talks were conducted following the agreement reached after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in San Francisco last November to “bring the temperature down” in the South China Sea.

“This shows how well diplomacy can be managed if President Marcos takes charge personally and does not allow unpredictable underlings to waylay the direction of Philippine-China relations or foreign operations and impose their nefarious strategy of tension, and bring relations dangerously to the brink,” Laurel said.

He said the Department of Foreign Affairs “has been observing proper diplomatic decorum the past months, keeping within bounds of professional diplomatic reticence and only speaking formally through proper diplomatic channels. This has served to avoid a lot of confusion and misunderstandings, and augurs well for further improvement of the country’s diplomatic posture.”