PBA Finals fearless predictions
ACCOUNTABILITY kills fearlessness. But that’s what disclaimers are for. So, consider the subsequent predictions here as observations and musings of a basketball fan, nothing more.
For the past half decade, most of the articles written about the PBA, especially on social media, consist of unsolicited and unheeded suggestions. At times we forget that the games are actually being played by the best Filipino players. At least for now.
The Magnolia Chicken Timplados Hotshots (yes, that is their official team name) and the San Miguel Beermen will clash in the PBA Commissioner’s Cup Finals. This series looks like an exciting matchup between the two top teams in the standings.
Side note: The Purefoods/Magnolia franchise has had historically bad team names. They started with an iconic product (Purefoods Tender Juicy Hotdog) but they’ve had Coney Island Ice Cream Stars, Oodles Flavored Noodles, B-Meg Derby Ace Llamados, San Mig Coffee Mixers, to the Pambansang Manok, and now the Timplados. I bet the marketing people had something to do with this.
Meanwhile, their sister teams are legendary alcoholic beverages which are already symbols of Filipino culture: Ginebra and San Miguel Beer.
Talent vs cohesion
There is a stark contrast between the two finalists. Both rosters are loaded, but there are slight differences.
The Hotshots are the most cohesive team this conference. They have had their import, Tyler Bey, since opening day. He was a perfect fit. Magnolia coach Chito Victolero knew what he wanted right from the start.
Although the team made some trades to beef up their frontline with Abu Tratter, the main development was their patience with James Laput. He was a high-risk, high reward draftee. A legit 6-foot-10 center who hardly produced at La Salle during college due to injury.
The Hotshots gave him the exposure in the offseason leagues, and that helped his confidence. Now, he is a reliable center and he will be pitted against no less than the league’s best, June Mar Fajardo.
The Hotshots roster is deep, but not as deep as their opponent’s lineup which bordered on the ridiculous. The San Miguel Beermen have players like Jericho Cruz, Terrence Romeo, and Jeron Teng coming off the bench. How crazy is that? The downside of having such a star-studded lineup is that playing time is hard to distribute. Some players have to sacrifice.
In the Finals, we expect to see compressed lineups. No problem with the Hotshots coach who knows exactly who to use and what to do. The other side is different. With a new coach and a late replacement import, San Miguel will not have this luxury because of its depth.
But that’s a positive problem, isn’t it?
Fearless not flawless
As mentioned, predictions on the outcome will garner flaws, but it’s fun to make them. So, what should we expect in the Finals?
The Hotshots have their game plan that worked all conference long. They may have made experiments along the way, but they have more accurate assessments and expectations from each player. They have the materials to win it all, a solid 8-9 man rotation that can match the Beermen’s deep talent pool.
The Hotshots now have size. Before, they used to wear out Ian Sangalang and had to give Rafi Reavis extended minutes. Now they have Laput and Tratter along with their import Bey.
But would that be enough to beat San Miguel Beer?
No less than Gilas coach Tim Cone noted how difficult it is to stop a loaded team led by seven-time MVP Fajardo and Boatwright, who is arguably the most talented import in the tournament.
The Beermen have looked vulnerable early, but Boatwright seems to have filled the team’s holes. Their elimination round encounter does not give us much, since it is only one game and the Beermen did not have Fajardo and Boatwright back then.
As opposed to the Beermen’s usual trend where they start strong early in the Conference, the team gained strength as the Conference went along, since new coach Jorge Gallent was still tinkering with the roster.
Cohesion may take the edge here, and also Magnolia’s defense. Boatwright may not have started the conference with the Beermen, but I guess he has already settled down with the team’s system. Because if they are still making adjustments, they will be eaten up alive by the razor sharp Hotshots.
It will be a long series since San Miguel can win games on talent alone but I believe the series belongs to the well-blended Timplados. No pun intended.