Unctad raises alarm on global trade disruptions
THE United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) warned that escalating attacks on ships in the Red Sea are adding strain to shipping routes already hit by conflict and climate change.
In a statement, the UN’s trade and development body raised profound concerns over escalating disruptions to global trade.
It said that recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea, combined with geopolitical tensions affecting shipping in the Black Sea and the impacts of climate change on the Panama Canal, have given rise to a complex crisis affecting key trade routes.
Unctad’s head of trade logistics, Jan Hoffmann, outlined the organization’s detailed analysis of the situation at the UN’s press briefing in January this year.
He underlined maritime transport’s critical role in international trade, noting that it is responsible for approximately 80 percent of the global movement of goods.
Disruptions in the Black Sea and Panama and Suez canals
The Suez Canal, a critical waterway connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, handled approximately 12 percent to 15 percent of global trade in 2023. Unctad estimated that the trade volume going through the Suez Canal decreased by 42 percent in the last two months.
The conflict in Ukraine has also triggered substantial shifts in oil and grain trades, reshaping established trade patterns.
Meanwhile, the Panama Canal, another key artery for global trade, is grappling with a severe drought that has diminished water levels, resulting in a staggering 36 percent reduction in total transits in the past month compared to a year ago.
The long-term implications of climate change on the canal’s capacity raise concerns about enduring impacts on global supply chains. The crisis in the Red Sea, marked by Houthi-led attacks disrupting shipping routes, has added another layer of complexity.
Container ship transits plummet while freight rates and emissions surge.
In response to the Red Sea crisis, major players in the shipping industry have temporarily suspended Suez transits.
Notably, weekly container ship transits have plummeted by 67 percent. Tanker transits and gas carriers are also experiencing significant declines.
Meanwhile, shipping prices are increasing. The $500 surge in the average container spot freight rates during the last week of December was the highest-ever weekly increase.
Average container shipping spot rates from Shanghai have more than doubled (+122 percent) since early December. More specifically, the rates from Shanghai to Europe have more than tripled (+256 percent), while rates to the west coast of the United States increased by 162 percent, although ships on this route do not go through the Suez Canal.
Insurance premiums have also surged, compounding the overall cost of transit.
Additionally, ships rerouted from the Suez and Panama Canal routes are compelled to travel faster to compensate for detours, burning more fuel per mile and emitting more CO2, further exacerbating environmental concerns.
“Here we see the global impact of the crisis, as ships are seeking alternative routes,” Hoffmann said.
Global implications: Increases in energy and food prices.
Unctad underscored the far-reaching economic implications of these disruptions.
Prolonged interruptions, particularly in container shipping, pose a direct threat to global supply chains, raising the risk of delayed deliveries and higher costs.
While current container rates are approximately half of the peak seen during the Covid-19 crisis, it will take time for the higher prices to hit consumers, with the full impact expected within a year.
Energy prices are witnessing a surge as gas transits are discontinued, directly impacting energy supplies, especially in Europe.
The crisis also impacts global food prices, with longer distances and higher freight rates potentially cascading into increased costs. Disruptions in grain shipments from Europe, the Russian Federation and Ukraine pose risks to global food security, affecting consumers and lowering the prices paid to producers.
“Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to these disruptions, and Unctad remains vigilant in monitoring the evolving situation,” Hoffmann said.
The organization emphasized the urgent need for swift adaptations from the shipping industry and robust international cooperation to navigate the rapid reshaping of global trade dynamics.
The challenges underscore trade’s vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and climate-related challenges, demanding collective efforts for sustainable solutions, especially in support of the countries more vulnerable to these shocks.