Will there be world war? Not this year — we pray

AS seen in online posts, articles and videos, the headline question is worrying more and more people, not only since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago but also with the four-month-old conflict between Israel and Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya (Hamas or Islamic Resistance Movement).

Last year there was fear that the United States-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) would enter the Ukraine conflict, which could then go nuclear if Moscow or NATO, with three nuclear powers, faced defeat. Plus, Beijing could invade Taiwan while Washington fights in Europe.

After the Israel-Hamas conflict erupted last October, mounting Gaza casualties — 100,000 mostly Palestinian dead, wounded or missing by the United Nations’ count — risked prodding Muslim countries nearby to join the fray, as Hamas probably intended in provoking the Gaza invasion. A wider war could then drag in Israel’s backer America and Iran’s ally Russia.

A chance for peace?

That situation late last year probably made Marian devotees wonder if Pope Francis’ consecration of the world on March 25, 2022, naming Russia and Ukraine and joined by thousands of bishops across the planet, didn’t work. This was despite fulfilling most fully the instructions of Our Lady of Fatima in 1917 and the late 1920s to obtain world peace.

As relayed by the Blessed Virgin to three shepherd children in rural Portugal, God wanted the Pope to consecrate Russia to her Immaculate Heart and order all other bishops across the planet to join. With that and the promotion of Five First Saturdays devotion, she declared, there would be world peace.

After consecrations by Popes Pius 12th in 1942 and 1952 and St. John Paul 2nd in 1981, 1982 and 1984, global conflicts were indeed shortened or prevented. Following the Oct. 31, 1942 rite, Allied forces won the Second World War in three years. Russian dictator Josef Stalin’s planned invasion of Europe while Uncle Sam was fighting in Korea in 1952 ended with his death by brain hemorrhage the following year.

And in 1984, as Moscow plotted to take out US intermediaterange ballistic missiles (IRBMs) in Europe capable of nuking Russia sans retaliation, war was averted after devastating explosions on May 13, 1984 — the Feast of Fatima — destroyed most of the Soviet Navy’s armaments at its main base in Severomorsk.

Reformer Mikhail Gorbachev’s rise as Soviet leader the next year led eventually to the IRBM ban on Dec. 8, 1987 — Solemnity of Mary’s Immaculate Conception — and the communist Soviet Union’s demise on Jan. 1, 1992 — Solemnity of Mary, Mother of God (“Our Lord may have stopped world war — for now,” http://tinyurl.com/4a4mhyhe).

Now, there is Francis’ 2022 consecration on the Solemnity of the Annunciation of Christ’s Incarnation in the Blessed Virgin Mary, petitioned by Ukrainian bishops. Did it also stop global conflict?

At first glance, no, with Ukraine still bleeding and now Gaza. But these conflicts may have actually halted the march toward world war. For one, the fear of being overstretched by conflicts in Europe, the Middle East and Asia prompted Washington to pull back from confrontations with Moscow and Beijing while reining in Israel from devastating assaults likely to push its Muslim neighbors to attack.

While Western media portrays the war with Russia as a stalemate, in fact, Ukraine is no longer aiming to defeat the invaders. Rather, it is mainly attacking Russian facilities and warships far from the frontline. Meanwhile, Moscow is reportedly conserving its forces and just waiting for Ukraine’s army to collapse from lack of men and munitions. In sum, no Russia-NATO war this year.

In Asia, Washington pressed Beijing when their presidents met last November in San Francisco to resume communications between their militaries and thus avoid hostilities. Perhaps expecting no aggressive US response, China has rattled sabers over Taiwan’s January election, continued maritime frictions with the Philippines, and, lately, renewed assertion of claims in East China Sea areas now under Japan.

Indeed, there is no direct USChina confrontation, and outside the Philippines, Southeast Asia seems set on staying neutral and not joining Washington’s alliance to counter Beijing.

But expect continued ChinaPhilippines friction — see the current cyberattack allegations in Congress. Such fears serve Washington’s agenda of winning support for renewing the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) by April for continued US access to nine Philippine military sites, with probably many more to make American warplanes harder to target.

The Middle East remains the big worry. Israel is continuing Gaza assaults despite US and United Nations pressure for a ceasefire to stop the bloodletting and resume major

aid flow. By the Gaza health ministry’s count, 28,000 Palestinians have died — 70 percent women and children. And attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by Houthi fighters in Yemen have prompted military action by US and British forces on the Houthis and other Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq and Syria, raising the risk of war with Iran.

Still, direct US-Russia conflict and nuclear war may be less likely in the Middle East despite Israel’s widely acknowledged atomic arsenal. Moreover, America’s elections in November make it even harder for the Biden administration to wage major conflicts — a sure vote loser. War looks even less likely if Donald Trump wins, though powerful advocates of American supremacy now in power may engineer an incident, say, between China and the Philippines to boost US military deployment abroad.

Bottom line: For now, world war seems far less probable than a year ago. But will global powers use this easing conflict pressure to undertake peace initiatives? Or will they continue geopolitical confrontation and military buildup, which only escalates fears and risks of war? The latter happened after the 1990s Soviet collapse, with NATO reneging on its pledges not to expand and even to invite Moscow to join — wasting a tremendous opportunity for peace in Europe.

So, we have reason to thank heaven for superpower pullback from conflict. But we must pray more for the world’s armed blocs to resist the temptation of seeking geopolitical and military supremacy — spawning arms races in Europe and Asia and risking global if not nuclear war.