Will the Kosovo model work in an independent Mindanao?

THE recent statements of former president Rodrigo Duterte about establishing an independent state of Mindanao have roused many speculators (and even experts) to revisit many aspects of the already complicated past and present of Mindanao.

The historical injustices and inequalities have again been put to the fore as those people, either for or against, articulated their points on why Mindanao should or should not secede from the Philippines. In fact, some officials even called on law enforcers to look out for possible seditious conduct or pronouncements by those pushing for independence in Mindanao.

However, no matter how outrageous you may think the pronouncements of the former president may be, looking closer at world events in the not-so-distant past makes such a proposal not as far-off as many of us would initially think. In short, the secession of parts of a country, like our Mindanao, has happened many times.

To understand the possibility of this happening, we need to look closely at the proposed methodology and legal avenue that the proponents seek to use, as well as the areas that could possibly be included here.

Accordingly, former House speaker Pantaleon Alvarez, the Duterte-announced lead of this movement, has been advocating for this since 2005 when PRRD was still Davao City mayor. In November 2023, he proposed that Mindanao push for independence if the national government continues to pursue its claim in the West Philippine Sea or the South China Sea dispute. He believes that aggressively pushing for the areas could push the country into armed conflict, thereby endangering the lives of Filipinos.

There seems to be a group that goes by the name “Mindanao Independence Movement” that has been gaining momentum, especially after the pronouncement last week by the former president. Groups pushing for an independent Mindanao State are no longer new (take, for example, MNLF, MILF, BIFF, etc.,) but what is interesting for the newly formed Mindanao Independence Movement is their choice of model for their campaign for independence — the Kosovo model. The model alludes to the manner in which Kosovo claimed its independence from Serbia.

Let us look at the history of Kosovo for a moment to understand what the proponents might mean. In 1912, Kosovo became part of Serbia a few years after Serbia became part of the Federation of Yugoslavia. Many Serbians consider Kosovo one of the most important places in Serbia, with even some referring to it as the “Jerusalem” of Serbia to highlight that it is the heart of the nation. When communism collapsed in Eastern Europe, the slow disintegration of Yugoslavia started as well. The states comprising Yugoslavia, like Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia, began to declare independence. Serbia wanted to preserve the union and supported the Serbs living in those areas to battle against the secessionists. However, when Kosovo declared independence shortly after, Serbia and the international community did not give much consideration to their declaration. The resistance and secessionist groups pushed hard until Serbia decided to employ enormous force against Kosovo secessionists. The force employed was so great that the international community, particularly the West and NATO, gave it serious attention, calling it a massacre against Kosovo. Important to note is the fact that Kosovo is 95 percent composed of Albanian ethnicity, which is almost completely Muslim, versus the 5 percent Serbian ethnicity, which is mostly Orthodox Christian.

NATO eventually stepped in, and bombings were unleashed on Serbian-controlled areas in Kosovo and areas inside Serbia itself, leading to the surrender and pull-out of Serbia from Kosovo. However, it was only nine years later that Kosovo declared independence in 2008.

But the Kosovo Declaration of Independence was made without the agreement and consent of its former country Serbia, thus making it a “unilateral declaration of independence.” This is in contrast with the more formal negotiated declaration of independence, where the mother state goes through a systematic negotiation leading to the independence of the newly created state.

Until today, many ethnic Serbs within Kosovo still do not recognize Kosovo as a state outside of Serbia, which they still consider as their mother country.

What is critical here is how Kosovo got its status as an independent nation. In fact, not all countries and nations in the international community recognize Kosovo as an independent state. Kosovo is yet to get international recognition by all states that it is now, in fact, independent.

Every law student who studied political and international law knows that one of the most important elements of a state is external “sovereignty,” which is established by the recognition by the international community of one’s status as truly sovereign and independent.

The most important factor in the Kosovo model of declaration of independence is the recognition by powerful ally states and countries (more than 100) led by the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and other allied countries.

On the other hand, together with Serbia, some powerful countries still do not recognize the independent status of Kosovo such as Russia, China, India and Spain, among others.

The assertion by the Mindanao Independence Movement that it will pursue the Kosovo model would seem to mean that they are looking to a “unilateral declaration of independence,” which is leaning on the support of powerful allied and friendly states and nations.

It was no accident that the convenor of the movement did mention, as reported in the news, that they are looking for support from countries like Russia, Turkey and China.

The question is, will the Kosovo model work in the push for an independent Mindanao?

I am still praying for a united Philippines.