Rising global defense spending could herald ‘dangerous decade’

IN its Military Balance 2024 report released last week, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based military think tank, sees the world facing a “dangerous decade” as conflicts escalate and tensions mount across several regions.

In the Editor’s Introduction to the report, the IISS noted: “Threats to the rules-based order have intensified over the past year, prompting governments to reassess security priorities, defense spending and equipment plans.”

It said the Israel-Hamas war, Russia’s military incursion in Ukraine, the increasingly assertive stance of China in the South China Sea, and coups in Niger and Gabon point to a deteriorating global security situation.

The rising number of conflicts pushed defense spending by superpowers to a record $2.2 trillion in 2023, up by 9 percent from the previous year, the study found.

The biggest spenders were countries belonging to NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), as the alliance builds up its response to the war in Ukraine, which enters its third year this month.

Not wanting to be left behind, Russia has ramped up its military spending, as it tries to replenish men and materiel lost during its Ukraine offensive. Moscow is said to have lost 3,000 main battle tanks, which was equivalent to its inventory before the invasion began.

In Asia, China spent $219 billion for defense last year, taking up 43 percent of the region’s total military spending, the study said.

To further project itself as a blue-water naval power, China has launched its third and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, which is completing sea trials. Beijing has not revealed the Fujian’s price tag, but for comparison, the USS Gerald Ford, the world’s largest carrier and also the most expensive, topped off at $13 billion.

More disturbing is the study’s projection that the “era of insecurity” will be “characterized by the brazen application by some of military power to pursue claims.”

That situation is already unfolding in the South China Sea, where Beijing has been resorting to intimidation and harassment to assert its illegal claim on islets, atolls and similar features that belong to the Philippines.

China is also holding exercises in the outer fringes of the Pacific Ocean, extending its reach beyond its “pond.”

Beijing has not abandoned its longtime obsession to “reclaim” the rogue province of Taiwan, constantly probing the island’s air and sea defenses for weaknesses.

The study also noted that “like-minded democracies” are reinforcing “bilateral and multilateral defense ties” to counter emerging threats.

In the Indo-Pacific sphere, the United States and its Western partners are on an alliance-strengthening spree. The year 2021 saw the birth of Aukus, a security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the US. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines also reinforced their security ties with the Western bloc and with one another through more frequent joint maneuvers and training exercises.

China and Russia have bolstered their own alliance, holding joint sea drills near the coast of Alaska, the study noted.

Beijing and Moscow are also giving North Korea a more prominent role in the region’s geopolitical stage, with their high-echelon officials visiting Pyongyang last year.

The next flash point

Even before the IISS released its report, political analysts were already acknowledging the Indo-Pacific as the next flash point in the intensifying rivalry between the US and China, the world’s most dominant economic and political blocs.

The region is home to more than half of the world’s population and accounts for 60 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP). The US’ pivot to the Indo-Pacific is therefore driven mainly by economic survival. America cannot afford not to maintain a strong presence in the region. Asia, where China reigns supreme, is where two-thirds of the world’s economic growth is. If projections hold, mainland Asia’s share of global GDP will reach 58 percent by 2030.

“Asia will be the furnace in which a new era is forged,” boldly declared in an article in the McKinsey Global Institute website.

Clearly, the Western bloc wants to be a major player in the Indo-Pacific arena. But to do that, they will have to challenge China in its home court.

That face-off will impact the smaller economies in the region, including the Philippines.