Opposition cracking before India polls
NEW DELHI: More than two dozen opposition parties in India joined forces to take on Narendra Modi, one of the country’s most popular prime ministers in generations.
However, the broad alliance, which is believed to be beset with ideological differences and personality clashes, is cracking at a crucial time, just months before the country votes in a national election.
Fragmented by rivalries, political defections and ideological clashes, the alliance formed to unseat Modi and defeat his Bharatiya Janata Party’s electoral juggernaut is in shambles, analysts say.
Meanwhile, support for Modi is on the rise after he opened last month a Hindu temple in northern Ayodhya city, fulfilling his party’s long-held Hindu nationalist pledge.
Led by the Indian National Congress party that once dominated the country’s politics, the unity front includes over two dozen powerful regional parties that are direct rivals to each other in some states.
Their differences have only grown sharper as the election approaches, bolstering Modi’s shot at securing a third consecutive term.
“The opposition is in disarray. They’re looking very weak and not at all cohesive,” said Arati Jerath, a political commentator.
Analysts say talks on seat-sharing within the alliance have gone cold, in part due to the Congress party’s demands of fielding its own candidates in a majority of the seats, even in states where it is weak.
This triggered two of the alliance’s key partners in West Bengal and Punjab states to say they would contest seats there alone.
India has a first-past-the-post multiparty electoral system in which the candidate who receives the most votes wins.
In 2019, Modi’s party received 37 percent of the votes, but won 303 of the 543 seats. The opposition is hoping to consolidate the splintered vote among the parties by fielding a single primary candidate in each constituency against the BJP in the elections, which are expected to take place in April and May.
Meanwhile, the recent defection of Nitish Kumar, the chief minister of eastern Bihar state and one of the architects of the India alliance, to Modi’s party dealt another unexpected blow.
“Modi’s party has been successful in exposing distrust within the opposition alliance. It is cannibalizing the opposition parties from within by engineering these defections and draining them from the ground,” said Gilles Verniers, a scholar of Indian politics and a senior fellow at the New Delhibased Centre for Policy Research.
The fracturing of the opposition alliance also stems from problems that have long plagued the dynastic Congress party, which is struggling to stay relevant among voters.
In the 2019 election, the party secured a paltry 52 seats in Parliament.
In contrast, Modi has presented himself as an outsider cracking down on the political elite. The 73-year-old leader has also increasingly mixed religion with politics in a formula that has resonated deeply with India’s majority Hindu population, even if it undermines the country’s secular roots.
While the Congress’ main leader, Rahul Gandhi — scion of the influential Gandhi family — has drawn large crowds along two cross-India walks in recent months, poll experts question whether it would actually translate into votes.
Meanwhile, an emboldened Modi told Parliament earlier this month that his BJP was aiming for 370 seats in the upcoming polls, and their National Democratic Alliance would target 400 out of the 543 seats.
Today, unless there is a popular uprising against the ruling party over economic distress, Modi looks well set to win a third term comfortably.