Uncharted territory

THIS piece is meant for people who are uninformed or underinformed about our maritime issues with China. It’s important to know the past to understand the present that guides future action.

On Feb. 2, 1995, two years after the last Americans left the country, a Philippine Navy patrol boat found a newly built structure on stilts flying a Chinese flag on Mischief Reef, around 150 miles off Palawan. This was after Chinese soldiers detained a fisherman who reported it after his release. Beijing, which claims almost all of the South China Sea, denied the allegation and lied that it was merely a shelter for its fishermen. Today, Mischief Reef is a fully armed forward operating base on reclaimed land.

In fact, China now has three fully militarized artificial islands and seven military outposts in the Spratlys. Its maritime vessels patrol the area and harass our troops by pointing military-grade lasers, firing water cannons and blocking them from reaching their destinations. They do the same to our fishermen, preventing them from reaching their rich fishing grounds by ramming their boats and seizing their catch. The reef is nearly 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from China’s Hainan island. China wouldn’t have seized Mischief Reef had US forces stayed in the country, but that’s water under the bridge.

Now, three decades later, American troops have returned. China’s unabated coercive and challenging behavior has forced President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to expand the US military presence in the country. Under the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951 through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), the US is pre-positioning equipment and rotating forces in nine sites around the country. In exchange, US President Joe Biden vowed that American troops would come to the Philippines’ defense in the event of an attack on our armed forces.

Marcos’ decisions have largely been driven by the South China Sea territorial dispute and the prospective impact of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, considering the hundreds of thousands of Filipino citizens working there. It’s in this context that the Philippines boosted its military ties with the US and increased the number of EDCA sites to enhance its security, mitigate disaster risk and manage emergencies due to our lack of resources. Some 20 typhoons batter Isabela and Cagayan annually, and should China force the reunification of Taiwan, we will have our “Dunkirk” moment with OFWs wanting to be repatriated and Taiwanese seeking safe haven.

As we ramp up our ties with friendly nations, tensions have grown. A sore point is the BRP Sierra Madre on Ayungin Shoal. China has repeatedly demanded that we remove our ship from our own territory. We, in turn, are demanding that China remove all of its “illegal structures” within our EEZ. Unfortunately, China has been intensifying its bullying, and traditional methods of diplomacy have failed. No matter what we do to assert our rights, China will treat it as a threat to its power and ambitions. So, we’ve been left with no other choice but to work with allies and consider replacing the BRP Sierra Madre with a robust structure (Thank God!). China could retaliate by: – putting up a structure on Ayungin;

– stimulating “a new round of occupation” activities on uninhabited islands and reefs;

– claiming traditional fishing rights within our archipelagic waters; and

– challenging our claim to the Kalayaan Island Group and archipelagic baselines.

Our current deterrent strategy is to conduct more joint patrols with friendly countries within our territorial waters and exclusive economic zone. A key component is to publicize China’s coercive actions to counter its propaganda. We’re conducting exercises with the US and Australia. Japan, New Zealand, the UK, Canada and France as well. We’re reaching out to Asean neighbors to have a separate South China Sea Code of Conduct. We’re reportedly mulling the idea of bringing China to court a second time. Previously, in 2016, an arbitral tribunal invalidated China’s expansive maritime claims.

Our moves have triggered accusations from the PLA’s Southern Theater Command that we’re enlisting outside forces to stir up trouble and raising the level of its vitriol and intimidation. In response, Asean foreign ministers expressed their concern that China’s actions might, at some point, lead to a serious miscalculation. I see China as a wily global player that’s watching geopolitical conflicts closely. Its tactical alliance with Russia, Iran, North Korea and terror organizations is designed to erode America’s military domination worldwide. It will only move

when it calculates that America’s declining national power is beyond reversal.

Last November, President Xi Jinping stressed that China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime interests must be resolutely protected by cracking down on illegal activity at sea. Admiral Dong Jun, a former commander of the Chinese Navy, was appointed China’s 14th minister of national defense and state councilor, replacing Li Shang Fu in October 2023. His appointment is seen as a sign that China will seek military domination of the South China Sea, its air space, outer space and cyberspace, and full military-civilian integration to engage in all levels of warfare.

The South China Sea has seen an increase in joint military exercises in recent weeks. The US and its allies conducted several joint military exercises near the Philippines. Washington and its allies are showcasing an “interalliance cohesion” and sending China a message that the alliance is in lockstep with each other. Trilateral exercises among the US, Philippines and Australia, and quadrilateral exercises to include Japan, have been characterized as a commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

While the idea is to get China to return to a peaceful rise, China is expected to view such moves as an intensification of US-led efforts to contain it. Developments in recent years suggest China has adopted a more confrontational approach while it struggles to wrestle down unprecedented domestic political and economic problems by shifting the people’s focus to external forces in a bid to distract them from domestic challenges. And it could escalate beyond the point of no return. We’re in uncharted territory.

Rafael M. Alunan 3rd is a trustee of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations and served as Secretary of Interior and Local Government under President Fidel V. Ramos.