Europeans prepare to elect new parliament
Three months from now, 370 million Europeans will be called to elect a new EU parliament under the shadow of a contest playing out across the Atlantic as Donald Trump fights to reclaim the White House.
How exactly the prospect of a Trump 2.0 presidency — growing more tangible by the day — could nudge voters across the 27-nation European Union one way or another is an unknown.
However, it would have a major impact on the bloc — at a crossroads when it comes to fighting climate change, supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression and ensuring its own security.
“For Europe, Trump 2 is both a huge exclamation mark and a huge question mark,” said Sebastien Maillard, associate fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House.
Trump’s disruptive first term — with his “America First” credo dismissing multilateralism in general and the EU in particular — is still fresh in European minds.
The twice-impeached politician has caused anxiety in Europe with his threats to walk away from America’s NATO commitments, fueling a push by Brussels toward greater security independence.
“The Trump scenario is very, very consequential for what the European project is going to be able to do over the next period,” said Susi Dennison, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Any number of the bloc’s strategic priorities become “much, much harder to achieve” with him returning to power, she added.
On the most critical of these — the conflict on the EU’s eastern rim — US Republicans are, at Trump’s call, blocking vitally needed aid to Ukraine.
They have maintained that position despite warnings that this could hand the advantage to Russia.
While the EU seeks to spearhead the global fight against climate change, Trump’s secondterm plans tack radically the other way: he vows to tear up a massive clean energy bill.
Both European priorities — preserving Western unity on Ukraine and transitioning to carbon neutrality by 2050 — could already be complicated by the June 6-9 European Parliament vote.
The balance of power in the 720-seat legislature determines how the EU’s top jobs — heading the commission, the parliament and the European Council, and leading foreign policy — are shared.
The center-right European People’s Party is set to remain the biggest force, followed by the Socialists — but the centrist Renew Europe could lose third place to the far-right Identity and Democracy group.
The ECFR predicts “anti-European populists” will likely come out on top in nine member states, including France, Hungary, Italy and the Netherlands.
ECFR polling showed Europeans across the bloc are most animated by the cost-of-living crisis: more than three in four expect their living standards to fall this year, according to a Eurobarometer poll from December.
Inflation is declining from record highs, but European growth is still flatlining — it is forecast at 0.6 percent this year in the eurozone — with no rebound in sight.