Canada goes on an immigrant-intake diet
CANADA is going on a temporary resident slimming diet for three years: from 683,585 study permits in 2023 to just 360,000, announced on Jan. 22, 2024.
Two months later, Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller issued another slimming regimen, this time involving temporary residents.
In 2023, Miller said temporary residents comprise 6.2 percent of Canada’s 38,781,291 population. During the same three-year period, the Canadian government wants to reduce that number to just 5 percent of the projected 46.0 million total.
The immigration minister laments Canada’s “addiction to foreign workers.”
On the permanent resident side, the government’s multi-year immigration plan is set at 500,000. That number apparently also faces a slimming routine given the housing crisis and health care concerns coupled with inflation. In fact, Canada may pursue the lower range of the target 442,500 by 2026.
Statistics Canada (StatCan) shows that the country admitted more than 437,000 new permanent residents in 2022 and over 604,000 temporary workers. As of July 1, 2023, an estimated 2,198,679 non-permanent residents lived in Canada, a 46 percent increase from the same date one year prior.
The immigration minister, however, did not specify who will be included as temporary residents; the Government of Canada website simply says that temporary residents “include visitors, students, workers, and temporary resident permit holders.”
Immigrant advocates are aware that the term could apply to “unauthorized or undocumented workers, super-visa holders who are allowed to stay for up to two years but not work or study, and non-permanent residents — a term coined by Statistics Canada to describe people who have a work permit, a study permit or are seeking refugee status.”
Shortage of labor conundrum
The political stance of the government reveals a gap in the country’s immediate and long-term economic realities. Statistics Canada highlights show the following:
1. Aging population. As of November 2023, there were approximately 2.7 million Canadians ages 15 to 24 who said they were employed, compared to more than 4.4 million people ages 55 and older who had a job. This also shows a wide difference in the total population of Canadians 15 to 24 years of age compared to those 55 and older, with 4.7 million and 12.4 million people, respectively.
Residents 65 and older are part of the fastest-growing age group in Canada today. As of 2023, there are about 7.6 million people 65 and older in Canada. Many of these Canadians are part of the baby boomer generation, which includes those born from 1946 to 1964.
The senior population is expected to exceed 11 million by 2043. And who will provide the funds for their retirement?
2. Worker-to-retiree ratio. According to Canada.ca, the worker-to-retiree ratio in Canada is expected to be 3 to 1 by 2027, down from 7 to 1 50 years ago. The government website shows that the ratio is already changing, with 21.8 percent of Canadians ages 55 to 59 reporting partial or complete retirement in June 2023. This number increases to 44.9 percent for those ages 60 to 64 and 80.5 percent for those ages 65 to 69.
The strong population growth fueled by immigration helped meet the demand for workers, which stabilized the retirement fund. The announced reduction threatens this stability.
3. Labor shortage. Yet StatCan figures show that “since the first quarter of 2022, the proportion of businesses expected a shortage of labor to be an obstacle over the next years.
The shortage of labor persists in accommodation and food services (the highest job vacancy rate across all sectors (7.6 percent), followed by businesses in manufacturing (43.8 percent), administrative and support, waste management and remediation services (37.6 percent), and health care and social assistance (35.1 percent).
Most affected sector: Food and beverage
Food Processing Skills Canada (FPSC), an industry stalwart, says Canada’s food and beverage manufacturing industry faces a massive labor shortage in the coming years. FPSC is a non-profit workforce development organization.
The industry will employ 325,000 by 2030, up from the roughly 300,000 it employed in 2022, an increase of 9 percent.
Considering the industry growth, the number of workers leaving, and the aging workforce, however, means 25,000 job openings will balloon in numbers, according to the report.
From 2023 to 2030, there will be a total demand of 66,800 new workers to replace the industry’s aging workforce, (FPSC) says. The industry will need to hire 92,500 workers over the 2023 to 2030 period. This is equivalent to roughly 31 percent of the 2022 workforce.
“In total, the Canadian food and beverage manufacturing industry will need 142,000 new people or almost 50 percent of the current workforce between 2023 and 2030,” said Jennefer Griffith, executive director of Food Processing Skills Canada.
The solution to Canada’s “addiction to temporary foreign workers” and the announcement to reduce the admission of temporary residents — mostly international students and temporary workers — will widen and deepen the gap between the political posturing and economic exigencies.
A silver lining, however, comes in the fact that the government has not set a target or cap for permits issued through the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), the International Mobility Program(IMP), Intra-company Transfers (ICT) or trade agreements, such as the Canada United States Mexico Agreement (Cusma).
Filipino temporary residents in Canada
Of the 2.4 million temporary residents in Canada cited by Minister Miller, India was on top in terms of temporary workers and international students. Ukraine was second, followed by Iran and the Philippines, distant 3rd and 4th placers, respectively.
India also leads the top 10 source countries for permanent residents. The Philippines came in a poor second in this category, as shown in the table from Statistics Canada figures of March 2024.
The transition from temporary to permanent resident takes years under the pre-reduction plan. The pathway will be complicated, tedious and lengthy thereafter.
In 2023, Canada admitted 6,378,863 visitors. (IRCC Open Portal). Visitors may apply for study or work permits and stay longer in Canada. Both procedures require specific documentary requirements and processing time. For those outside Canada, the processing time for study permits is 11 weeks, and work permits are a week longer.
Visitors seeking to change their status to study permit holders face a seven-week waiting period. The change to a work permit takes longer — 98 days.
Between the two, applicants for study permits will be affected by the new requirements, particularly because of the need for Provincial Allocation Letters (PAL).
Each province now needs to have its assigned allocation from the federal government on how many students each province may accept in a year. The province then issues a set number of allocation letters to designated learning institutions.
A Filipino applicant intending to apply with Red River College in Winnipeg, for example, must present a PAL issued by the college and then submit the PAL with the complete application.
This attestation serves as proof that the student has been accounted for under a provincial or territorial allocation within the national cap. Provinces and territories are expected to have a plan in place for issuing PALs by March 31, 2024.
The provinces with attestation programs in place are Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, and Saskatchewan.
Additional documents needed for a study permit are proof of acceptance, proof of identity, and proof of financial support. From January 1, 2024, the principal applicant needs at least C$20,635 to meet the funds requirement in addition to tuition fees and related fees.
Work permit requirements
Most people applying for work permits outside Canada follow the employerspecific work permit route. The job offer the applicant gets must have been secured through the employer portal using a designated and authenticated GCKey. The work permit contains the name of the specific employer, the duties, duration, work location and conditions.
Before submitting the work permit application with the Canadian embassy (through VFS), the applicant must present the employer’s documents authenticated by the designated labor attaché with jurisdiction over the place of work to the Department of Migrant Workers (DMW). These documents include a copy of the employment contract and one of the following — a copy of a labor market impact assessment (LMIA) or an offer of employment number (for LMIA-exempt workers).
Family members of the principal applicant (study permit and work permit) may qualify for an open work permit.
Months after the Holy Week, we shall see whether Canada’s diet works or whether the country will be back to the regular migration menu with temporary residents prominently featured.