El Niño, poverty and social unrest
THREE weeks ago, Emilio Yulo 3rd, the Negros Occidental 5th District representative, warned of possible social unrest if the dire circumstances faced by particularly the small sugarcane farmers would not be addressed (Digicast Negros, March 20, 2024). Negros Occidental’s sugarcane growers have for months been begging the Department of Agriculture to do cloud seeding, but their requests have been turned down. The result, according to Representative Yulo, is the inevitable death of the sugarcane, hardship and possibly social unrest.
Warnings of social unrest should not be taken lightly. While Negros Occidental may not yet — officially — have suffered as much crop damage as Iloilo, the former, the second most populous province in the Visayas, is struggling with poverty. Poverty incidence among the population stood at 39.7 percent in the first semester of 2023; 18.3 percent, or 477,000, individuals eke out a living below the official subsistence level. For the Philippines as a whole, poverty and subsistence rates were 22.4 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively, in the first semester of 2023.
Pervasive poverty plus massive crop failure due to sustained drought could have disastrous outcomes. In Negros Occidental and elsewhere.
Cebu City farmers, too, are reeling from the scorching sun and the drying up of water sources. The city council on March 27 declared a state of calamity in 28 mountain barangays where most of the farmlands are located. Farm production from Cebu City’s vegetable producers has declined — one farmers’ group reported an 80 percent drop in production since February (SunStar Cebu, March 31, 2024). This is alarming considering both the loss of livelihood and the fact that the city population — of about one million — reportedly sources an estimated 40 percent of its food supply from local farmers (SunStar Cebu, March 26, 2023). Around 11,000 farmers are registered with the Cebu City agriculture department. Their leaders claim they have received no meaningful support from the city government despite their pleas for help.
Any negative effect of El Niño on agricultural production and fishing would be very bad news for Cebu province as well, even if the share of the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors in the provincial economy is only about 10 percent. Cebu, like Negros Occidental, has seen the poverty rate rise even after the end of the pandemic; 21.4 percent of the population, or 732,000 individuals, live below the subsistence level, while poverty incidence is 42.4 percent (almost 1.5 million individuals), according to the PSA 2023 First Semester poverty statistics. Cebu is the biggest province in the Visayas, population-wise.
PSA recently released the 2021 City and Municipal Level Poverty Estimates. The findings for Cebu are still relevant as the province’s poverty rate remains high, and we can learn something about where the poverty is. The City and Municipal Level Poverty Estimates indicate that a poverty incidence of 30 percent or higher is found north of Carmen (with Bogo City being the only exception) and south of San Fernando. In other words, proximity to Cebu, Mandaue and LapuLapu cities appears to be a significant factor in poverty levels. The small towns of San Francisco in Camotes and Malabuyoc in the south recorded poverty rates of 54.3 percent and 50.4 percent, respectively. They are among the 18 of Cebu’s 44 municipalities with poverty incidences above 40 percent.
The high poverty is also reflected in the fact that Cebu in 2022 had the lowest per capita income among provinces in Central Visayas (PSA: 2022 Economic Performance of Provinces and HUCs in Regions Outside NCR).
While there have so far been no official reports of crop damage in the province, at least some areas must be as affected as Cebu City’s hilly lands. The destructive effects of the El Niño are bound to affect agricultural production and fisheries sooner or later. What measures do the towns and provinces have in place for timely and adequate assistance to affected families, particularly those in the poorest communities?
As for Cebu City, where aside from the calamity declaration in the mountain barangay, Mayor Michael Rama has declared a water crisis, there is doubt about the preparedness and competence of the officials concerned. The city council, even if dominated by allies of the mayor, did not approve the executive department’s request for about P80 million worth of farm implements for the city’s affected farmers. The councilors flagged several items — including seeds and fertilizers — as being out of tune with the prevailing drought conditions. As for the three-cornered squabble over who should run the Metro Cebu Water District, it is only making matters worse. It will eventually affect the delivery of services.
In this time of unprecedented crisis, everyone needs to be on the same page and focus on preventing the crisis from escalating into a disaster.