Biden in bind trying to halt Mideast escalation
WASHINGTON, D.C.: Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend gives United States President Joe Biden a familiar dilemma, but on steroids: how to balance support for a difficult ally while preventing the nightmare scenario of a wider war?
Tensions with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip were papered over as the US leader offered “ironclad” support, including shooting down Iranian drones.
But the White House said it would not support an Israeli counterattack and warned Israel to “think carefully” about escalation that could trigger a full-blown REGIONAL CONflICT.
The question then for Biden, who is facing a tough reelection battle against his Republic predecessor Donald Trump in November, is what if Netanyahu goes ahead anyway, as he has done in Gaza?
“It puts him in a very tough spot,” Colin Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Group, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
“I think he’s suspicious of Netanyahu’s motives here ... that Netanyahu is attempting to broaden the war throughout the region to DEflECT FROM HOW POORLY THE WAR is going for him in Gaza,” he said.
Biden has been trying to avoid a regional war that could suck the US back into the Middle East ever since Hamas’ deadly October 7 attacks and Israel’s military operation in Gaza.
The 81-year-old has, however, struggled to use the leverage provided by the US being Israel’s main military supplier, especially given a long history of tense relations with Netanyahu.
‘Slow things down’
Biden has been increasingly critical of the death toll in the Palestinian territory and even went as far as suggesting the US could limit military aid, but so far to little effect.
Iran’s attack has seen Biden go back to showing overt support, but at the same time scrambling to stop the crisis spiraling.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Netanyahu was “well aware” that Biden did not want a “wider war.”
Biden himself warned the Israeli premier of the potential dangers in a call on Saturday night at a time of “heightened emotion.”
“The president had a discussion about trying to slow things down, think through things,” a US offiCIAL SAID.
The hope was that “in the light of day,” Israel would see it had had a “spectacular success” against IRAN’S ATTACK, THE OFfiCIAL ADDED.
Washington’s calculus looks to be that Iran also got what it wanted, with a show of force in retaliation for Israel’s strike in the Syrian capital Damascus earlier this month that killed a key Iranian general, but with minimal damage.
“However, I fear the status quo will be short-lived,” said James Ryan, executive director of the Middle East Research and Information Project, warning of a “dangerous spiral.”
“I expect Biden to attempt to restrain Israeli responses, but Netanyahu has already shown a willingness to test any kind of limit Biden wishes to impose,” he added. “It’s all very cynical now, unfortunately.”
‘Into a corner’
Biden’s options for restraining Israel are likely to be limited at this stage to tough language in private and making threats in public.
“They’ve got themselves into a corner in many ways,” said Clarke. “I think they’ve overplayed their hand a little bit by saying the administration is considering cutting off weapons to the Israelis. It’s never going to happen — I think it’s an empty threat, especially in an election year.”
The US presidential election in November comes as Biden faces domestic political pressure on all sides when it comes to Israel.
Trump has led a chorus of Republicans accusing Biden of being weak on the issue, while young and left-wing voters in particular are angered by his failure to stop the bloodshed in Gaza.
Netanyahu, facing his own political and legal issues at home, would now be able to use the Iran attacks to “paper over the very real rifts that exist” with Washington on Gaza, said Clarke.
“If he can drag this out until November, he’s hoping for a Trump victory,” when he would have “carte blanche” to act, however, he wanted in the region, he added.