The future of NATO
THE North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO) was forged after World War 2 to counter Soviet expansion into Europe. It was an ideological instrument as much as it was geopolitical and a military one. When the United Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) fell, that instrument lost its ideological raison d’etre, but not its geopolitical and military roles.
As long as Russia exists as a unified whole, and could threaten individual European nations, there will always be some basis to NATO’s existence. The war in Ukraine has reminded many Europeans of the importance of NATO, and even now, the body has experienced something of a resurgence.
Sweden, Ukraine and Finland, for example, have expressed interest in joining NATO. If that were to happen, Russia is sure to escalate very quickly.
However, there is one tiny little problem NATO has to deal with, and that is America’s willingness to support NATO. It’s safe for now, but one thing that Donald Trump’s presidency proved is that many Americans were dissatisfied with the Alliance or at least, dissatisfied with their role in it. If the US were to leave NATO, I have a hard time visualizing that it could continue to exist.
Additionally, America is already shifting its focus into Asia to counter China. If it does that, it will have fewer assets to focus on NATO, and the Europeans will have to have a long discussion about what they should do next.
None of this is obvious right now, but all it would take is for another populist/isolationist to come into power and America will likely start disengaging from NATO. The alliance will not necessarily disappear. Only that it will become a shadow of what it once was. That’s one scenario.
The other scenario is that the developed economies of NATO member states become so dysfunctional that NATO becomes unfeasible. Already many European countries are suffering from the lack of Russian oil and gas. If that continues, and if they cannot find an alternative to their power needs, NATO will suffer indirectly from those problems. And again, this will lead, not necessarily to the end of NATO, but to its weakening./