Piracy and war in the Red Sea, Part 2

AS OF January 11, 2024, the United States and the United Kingdom launched airstrikes on Houthi assets in Yemen.

All things considered, it’s not as serious as some think. The Houthis are ultimately a proxy force of Iran, and they along with the United States and the United Kingdom don’t want war.

Now, it’s worth mentioning that attacking foreign vessels is traditionally considered a cassus belli, a cause for war, and all the countries that the Houthis have attacked have cause to make war on them. The only reason no one wants to start one is because of geopolitical realities.

A final solution to the attacks may require a ground invasion and I doubt the Americans want that. So, militarily, they are stuck with limited operations like the recent airstrike.

Interestingly, while US- aligned c o u n t r i e s a re f a c i n g H o u t h i aggression, Chinese and Russian flagged vessels are reportedly not rerouting and are not being targeted. Again, this was written in January 11. Things may have changed since them but so far the Houthis are not as hostile to those kinds of ships.

Although I doubt the Russians and Chinese have direct influence over the Houthis, they do have it with Iran, and the Iranians have influence over the Houthis.

The big question now is one of political will. The US and her allies can protect shipping, using military means. It’s just a question of how long they are willing to do it.

The Houthis and their supporter, Iran, are unlikely to stop any time soon, and this is their territory. My most likely scenario is that the attacks will continue until some sort of settlement is reached behind closed-door meetings.

But regardless of what happens, regardless of how well the US and its allies protect passing vessels, the long-term economic ramifications of the Houthi attacks will continue, even if they are no longer a threat, and that’s the big issue here./