Pakistan and Iran add another log into the Middle East fire

AS OF THE writing of this article, Pakistan and Iran are having a tissy fit over a minority group that live near their respective borders, specifically the Jaish Al Adl.

I know little of the group but the brief clash has made the area in the Middle East even more complicated.

The limited operations that Pakistan and Iran have carried out on one another complicate an already tense situation in the region.

First, we had the Israeli-Gaza War, then we had Iranian-backed Houthi piracy and now, we have this. Should Iran and Pakistan escalate, it opens up a lot of different possibilities.

The Saudis, Israelis, Omanis, Yemenis and most countries in the Middle East will be involved. Perhaps the Israelis and Saudis will even gloat about it.

As for the Pakistanis, a war with Iran will bring them into the larger Middle East mess. It will also be a headache for their mutual ally: China.

T h e Pe o p l e ’ s Re p u b l i c o f China (PRC) has been befriending the Iranians for oil, while their relationship with Pakistan is to build an overland pipeline as a hedge against the hypothetical closing of the Malacca Straight (in case of war). So a conflict between Pakistan and Iran could destabilize China’s interests.

As for the US and its allies, this is just one more issue in the Middle East. Perhaps certain factions in the State Department may see it as an opportunity, maybe looking to leverage Pakistan against Iran, and if the situation with the Houthis and the Middle East escalate, they may just do that.

So far they have called for deescalation but I doubt the two sides will heed the call.

In any case, Pakistan and Iran’s recent spat is unprecedented and somewhat of a black Swan event. No one saw it coming, and although it’s unlikely to escalate, we should also remember the situation in this part of the world. Any further tension between those countries will not be confined to them.

Lastly, it’s worth mentioning that Pakistan has nukes, while Iran is on its way to get them. Think about what that means./

In any case, Pakistan and Iran’s recent spat is unprecedented and somewhat of a black swan event. No one saw it coming, and although it’s unlikely to escalate, we should also remember the situation in this part of the world. Any further tension between those countries will not be confined to them.