The threat of secession
FOR ANY nation-state, secession is always a possibility. It’s more obvious in some than in others, but it always exists.
Secession takes on many forms with some bloody and violent while others are relatively peaceful. But regardless of their variation, they always exist.
Nations change. Politics change. Demographics change. Ideologies change. And because of these changing elements, secession is always a possibility.
Having said that, it’s also worth mentioning that secession is a relatively rare event, and only takes place when certain conditions are met. And I just don’t see those conditions in Mindanao, as former President Rodrigo Duterte may believe. Maybe things will change in the future but as of now, I just don’t see it happening.
Mindanao’s elites will need overwhelming local support to secede / become independent. East Timor, for example, became i ndependent f rom I ndonesia through popular referendum in 1999. Almost four- fifths of the locals supported independence.
If a similar referendum were issued in Mindanao, how many would support independence, I wonder?
So far, I don’t see overwhelming cries for Mindanao independence from the locals. At best, I think t hose who s hare Dute r t e ’ s secessionist sentiments do exist in certain pockets here and there, but I doubt they form the majority of Mindanao’s population.
The problem is the dramatic overreaction from a lot of top officials. When Duterte spoke about secession, he was j ust one political f i gure. He may have supporters but they are probably not enough to make any meaningful impact, and that should been that.
So when political figures found it necessary to counter- signal Duterte, they made it seem as though Mindanao secession was some impending political crisis and not just the words of an exPresident. By taking the issue of secession seriously, they have given it power.
Who knows if this is going to be a fleeting event or if it will become something more, but either way, it is good that Filipinos become aware of the subject of secession. It’s i mportant that everybody understands that although our country is not at risk, it is a political phenomenon that can crop up in any country at any time./