Ceasefire's first test

ONLY two days after President Rodrigo Duterte declared during his State of the Nation Address (Sona) last Monday a unilateral ceasefire with the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP), a New People's Army (NPA) unit ambushed government forces in Kapalong, Davao del Norte killing a Cafgu Active Auxiliary member and wounding four others. Duterte has sought an explanation from the NDF on this.

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), through Col. Edgard Arevalo, the chief of its Public Affairs Office, claimed that the Cafgus were withdrawing from their “forward deployment” when ambushed. But an inquirer.net report quoted an Aris Francisco, supposed to be an NPA spokesperson, as saying that the government militiamen were not withdrawing but were conducting operations in Kapalong.

“The AFP and the Alamara (militia) have been on active operation in Kapalong, resulting in several engagements including its July 5 ambush that wounded one Red fighter. Determined to continue its offensive military operations in Kapalong, the same troops ignored the ceasefire declaration of their commander-in-chief and again took off for combat operation from their detachment in Barangay Patil on July 26,” Francisco said in an emailed statement to inquirer.net.

Judging from Francisco's language and some of the details he presented, I could say he is what he says he is in the underground. But the NDF has also promised to conduct an investigation on the incident, so it would be better to wait for its official statement and explanation. Then we will find out if the President will make good his threat to lift the unilateral ceasefire.

Which brings me to one point in this episode, which is that the ceasefire that the President declared is unilateral, meaning that it applies only to government troops and not to the rebels. As the Sun.Star Cebu editorial, “Ceasefire: who benefits” noted, AFP and the Philippine National Police (PNP) units “could still be attacked even if they would no longer pull the trigger.”

Ideally, a ceasefire should be a product of an agreement by both sides. But in this case, only the government, through Duterte, declared it. Obviously, it was a strategy to force the NDF to reciprocate by declaring a ceasefire of its own. What was not considered was that the NDF, which has under its umbrella the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) whose mili- tary arm is the NPA, is an underground organization. That imposes limitations, notably in swift decision-making.

As I have written in my previous column, it is not the Netherlands-based personalities like Jose Ma. Sison or Luis Jalandoni that would make the decision on a ceasefire but the CPP's Central Committee or the smaller Politburo. Gathering its members is not as easy as Duterte calling for a meeting of the Cabinet in Malacañang because of security considerations. I even think the CPP leadership was still meeting when that ambush took place.

The most that the NDF did on the ceasefire was outlined in a statement by Jorge “Ka Oris” Madlos, said to be the new head of the NPA's National Operational Command. He talked about the NPA shifting to “active defense” mode, which I understand means that its units would not launch tactical offensives against government troops but would retaliate when provoked.

Did the Cafgus provoke the NPA unit in Kapalong. We don't really know. But some people are calling for an investigation while Sen. Antonio Trillanes III, a former military man, went further by asking the NDF to hand over the people responsible for the ambush. Considering that the peace talks between the government and the NDF has not even resumed, that would be putting the cart before the horse.

What I am saying is that let us not transform this incident into a “Mamasapano, part 2.” The peace talks need a lot of objectivity from both sides.