Is Trump underestimating N. Korea?

SEOUL — US President-elect Donald Trump took to Twitter to vow that North Korea won’t develop a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the United States. But it might already have done so.

Views vary, sometimes wildly, on the exact state of North Korea’s closely guarded nuclear and missile programs, but after five atomic test explosions and a rising number of ballistic missile test launches, some experts believe North Korea can arm short- and mid-range missiles with atomic warheads.

That would allow Pyongyang to threaten US forces stationed in Asia and add teeth to its threat last year to use nuclear weapons to “sweep Guam, the base of provocations, from the surface of the earth.” Guam is a strategically important US territory in the Pacific.

Some experts see the US mainland as potentially within reach in as little as five years if North Korea’s nuclear progress isn’t stopped.

Trump’s tweet on Monday night US time was in response to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who said Sunday in his annual New Year’s address that preparations for launching an intercontinental ballistic missile have “reached the final stage.” He did not explicitly say a test was imminent.

Trump tweeted, “North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the US. It won’t happen!”

Here’s a look at how close North Korea may already be to proving Trump’s tweet wrong:

The nukes

There’s a general consensus that Pyongyang has made significant nuclear and missile progress under Kim, who took over after his father, Kim Jong Il, died in late 2011.

Kim has conducted three of the country’s five total nuclear tests, including two last year. Propaganda out of Pyongyang makes clear that North Korea views nuclear weapons as essential to keeping at bay US and South Korean forces it says are intent on its destruction.

Fuel is one thing; it’s much more difficult to develop the technology needed to build bombs small enough to fit on missile tips.

Each new nuclear test, however, pushes the North another big step toward its goal of an arsenal of nuclear missiles capable of hitting the US mainland.

The missiles

Outsiders don’t know for sure whether North Korea can arm any of its ballistic missiles, regardless of range, with nuclear warheads yet.

But Siegfried Hecker, a leading North Korea nuclear expert, wrote after last year’s September nuclear test that outsiders should now assume that Pyongyang has “designed and demonstrated” atomic warheads that can be placed on shortand possibly medium-range missiles.

North Korea may deploy a “working, nuclear-tipped ballistic missile” by 2020, according to another expert, Euan Graham, director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute.

China’s role

Another tweet from Trump criticized China, North Korea’s most important ally, for not doing more to discourage its nuclear weapons program: “China has been taking out massive amounts of money & wealth from the U.S. in totally one-sided trade, but won’t help with North Korea. Nice!”

Pyongyang has a habit of taking a swing at new US presidents, so Trump may not have long to wait before getting a fresh look at North Korean nuclear or missile technology.

Or both: In 2009, a newly inaugurated Barack Obama was greeted with a nuclear test and a long-range rocket launch. (AP)