Can the rebellion be crushed now?

Can the peace talks between the Duterte administration and the National Democratic Front (NDF) be saved? That’s an interesting question considering calls by some groups for both the government and the rebels not to give up on the peace process. Consider also that the move to terminate the peace negotiations was verbal and unilateral—announced by President Rodrigo Duterte during a speech on Saturday.

The Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), the main organization under the NDF umbrella, has said in a statement Monday that it it still has to receive a “formal notice of termination from the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP).” But that may be mere formality although the hope is that, like in some instances in the past, the President would change his mind.

That possibility of that happening, though, may have gotten slim because rightist elements in the government are apparently increasing also the pressure on the President not to back off from his pronouncement. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) is already on an “all-out war” posture against the rebels. Justice Secretary Vitaliano Aguirre is salivating on the prospect of rearresting political prisoners who were freed because they were NDF consultants to the talks.

And it’s not that this has not happened before. Governments that are friendly with the left always have to reckon with pressure from the right. The coup attempts launched by the Reform the Armed Forces Movement (RAM) against the administration of the late Corazon Aquino were partly meant to pressure her to let go of “leftist” elements in her government.

That’s why I expect that after it becomes clear that the peace talks can no longer be salvaged and clashes between government troops and the CPP’s armed wing, the New People’s Army (NPA) becomes frequent, the President will be pressured to let go of “leftist” elements in the Cabinet. This could happen in the middle of this year when the one-year ban on appointments to the government of those who wan in the 2016 elections ends and replacements would be readily available.

As for the CPP’s protracted people’s war, it will simply resume. This time around, there will no longer be a balancing between being soft on the Duterte administration on some issues while criticizing other government policies. Meaning that its treatment of the government would be simpler: as an enemy. And we will be back to the status quo ante, or the setup before Duterte became president when the peace talks were mothballed.

I am actually amused by those who say that with the termination of the peace talks, government troops can already crush the rebellion. That’s not automatic. The former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, even at the height of his power, could not dismantle the CPP and the NPA. If they survived Marcos, then it could survive the strongest offensive the Duterte administration would mount.

Which brings us back to the point of the peace talks. The only way that the rebellion could be “crushed” is when its root causes are addressed. That would have been the subject of discussion in the scuttled peace talks.