EARLY ‘PROBABLES’ IN SENATE RACE

Factors that determine who are the serious aspirants and most likely to win

HOUSEHOLD RECOGNITION AND PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE. Each usually influences the other: if a Senate bet is widely known, he is usually favored to get the vote. Awareness of the candidate’s existence and work leads to the decision to vote. But not always.

SURVEY RESULTS. People, including candidates, have come to accept survey results, at least those of two reputable firms: Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia, which have somehow shown their efficiency in reading public mood. Somehow, the survey is influenced by what its respondents tell it just as aspirants’ popularity -- along with how they figure in the news --must influence the results. Many people ultimately pick those who shine in the survey because the survey has made them shine.

DUTERTE FACTOR.

In a mid-term Senate election, the president somehow affects voters’ choice. Especially this race where President Duterte’s popularity is still up. He can influence the makeup of the Magic 12, particularly in the last two seats. People would be watching if Duterte could make his aide Bong Go win even though the skill Go has shown is mostly limited to photo bombing and valet work.

PARTY, BIG CLANS’ HELP. Traditional influencers are political machinery and the favors of political clans in huge vote centers. Entrenched politicians such as the Marcoses, the Arroyos, the Dutertes, the Osmeñas, the Garcias and the regional parties that serve as their vvote machines will surely be determinants, particularly in a tight contest over the last two to three seats. Independents will have a tougher chance.