Predicting COPD risk
What if we can predict a person’s risk for future development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)? That is exactly the question that 15 researchers from different healthcare institutions in Australia sought to answer. The researchers in this study came mostly from the University of Melbourne, such as lead researcher Melanie Matheson. However, two Sri Lankan institutions were also involved: the National Institute of Fundamental Studies in Kandy and the University of Sri Jayewardenepura in Nugegoda. The study was published this year in the International Journal of COPD.
COPD is currently the seventh most burdensome disease worldwide. In fact, it is expected to become the third top causative of death by 2030; that is, a mere 12 years from now.
COPD is serious because it has a very poor prognosis. Of people who have to be hospitalized because of COPD, about 30 percent usually die in the next two years. In-hospital death rate is also high at around 15 percent. This deadly situation occurs due to the usual under-diagnosis of COPD, particularly in its early stage. This means that most people who sought hospitalization are already in the fatal stage of the disease.
The Matheson research team noted tobacco smoking as the strongest predictive factor for COPD due to the tobacco smoke’s direct assault on the lung tissues. Consequently, the assault can be exacerbated by other inhaled toxic materials, such as vehicle exhausts, dusts and industrial fumes. Both of these toxic inhalants can lead to the gradual dysfunction of the small airways of the lungs.
It must be noted, however, that only up to 30 percent of tobacco smokers ever developed COPD. This fact leads us to wonder where the 70 percent of COPD cases come from. This is where the other inhaled toxins come in. A study in 2009 by PD Blanc and colleagues, published in the European Respiratory Journal, noted that environmental pollution can account for 20 percent of COPD cases worldwide. That leaves us still at least 50 percent of unaccounted causes of COPD.
In effect, there is still much to ascertain in pinpointing all factors that lead to the inevitable development of COPD. Other studies demonstrated an early weakening of the lung function in people with COPD, indicating that there is a physiological explanation involved. This means that the health status of the person itself is a very crucial factor.